{ "ticker": { "uuid": "339e6c54-8f24-45e6-9cd2-d805e840d4d5", "symbol": "RHRX", "name": "STARBOARD INVESTMENT TRUST RH TACTICAL ROTATION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.788, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.965, "architecture_energy": 26.928, "architecture_maturity": 50.805, "architecture_confidence": 85.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.51, "rotation_up": 30.37, "upward_expansion": 55.36, "deceleration": 90.39, "rotation_down": 26.55, "downward_expansion": 19.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.67352, 21.706315, 21.606146, 21.142474 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.0579, "trend_reference": 20.495843, "distance_from_trend": 0.076213, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.294619, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.242916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.146508, "excess_performance": 0.020883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076213, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059664, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012429, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049117, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146508, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.163821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15146, "relative_activity": 0.244424, "balance": 1.163821, "dry_up": 0.985721, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034643, "annualized_volatility": 0.12905, "from_high_reference": -0.059365, "from_low_reference": 0.308298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.495843, "fair_value_reference": 16.294619, "structural_low": 18.5834, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.030844, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.005585, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.120137, "worst_return": -0.012176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.069507, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.001681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159926, "worst_return": -0.106145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.136578, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207755, "worst_return": 0.053395, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016674, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057854, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.039423, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003308, 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"relative_strength": 2.751313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.858442, "energy": 30.655992, "activity_lines": [ 21.681887, 21.768362, 21.402077, 20.878023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.4026, "volume": 30147, "typical_volume": 66327.95, "trend": 20.27753, "fair_value": 16.17595, "relative_strength": 3.041353, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.292616, "energy": 24.898173, "activity_lines": [ 21.55024, 21.701545, 21.459149, 20.956589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.4827, "volume": 57791, "typical_volume": 61531.25, "trend": 20.381853, "fair_value": 16.233154, "relative_strength": 2.17258, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.468839, "energy": 20.741012, "activity_lines": [ 21.50894, 21.650458, 21.511645, 21.034342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.0579, "volume": 15146, "typical_volume": 61966.05, "trend": 20.495843, "fair_value": 16.294619, "relative_strength": 1.242916, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.965416, "energy": 26.928319, "activity_lines": [ 21.67352, 21.706315, 21.606146, 21.142474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }