{ "ticker": { "uuid": "339f50c7-43d9-4375-a7a6-7d7b1f7cd3b3", "symbol": "002971", "name": "Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.612, "architecture_energy": 28.22, "architecture_maturity": 73.151, "architecture_confidence": 92.729, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.66, "rotation_up": 18.73, "upward_expansion": 50.3, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 49.23, "downward_expansion": 29.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.644001, 48.119919, 45.910619, 42.523785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.380001, "trend_reference": 38.559367, "distance_from_trend": 0.176887, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.985434, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.816258, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.13775, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.45309, "excess_performance": 0.44569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.176887, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190992, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.816258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.438858, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.231378, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.368421, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.45309, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978403, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74610528, "relative_activity": 1.213739, "balance": 0.978403, "dry_up": 1.398148, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.25932, "annualized_volatility": 1.107182, "from_high_reference": -0.424696, "from_low_reference": 0.798652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.559367, "fair_value_reference": 24.985434, "structural_low": 27.200001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.023848, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.008614, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.096828, "worst_return": -0.154318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002394, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022037, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.112931, "worst_return": -0.109807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037427, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.045886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.334922, "worst_return": -0.118674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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65.279034, 54.854454, 45.077833, 40.984441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 53.490002, "volume": 109701712, "typical_volume": 49194474.0, "trend": 37.385033, "fair_value": 24.475691, "relative_strength": 40.395431, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.677923, "energy": 84.528749, "activity_lines": [ 62.962624, 55.945891, 46.423448, 42.071385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.009998, "volume": 86246770, "typical_volume": 52347991.0, "trend": 37.687033, "fair_value": 24.620492, "relative_strength": 20.196518, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.450172, "energy": 49.322007, "activity_lines": [ 55.871799, 54.554215, 46.573348, 42.36977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.43, "volume": 90687770, "typical_volume": 55447352.65, "trend": 37.933033, "fair_value": 24.735302, "relative_strength": 6.192146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.954111, "energy": 17.825084, "activity_lines": [ 48.31973, 52.13198, 46.24939, 42.353187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.240002, "volume": 92240930, "typical_volume": 58807899.35, "trend": 38.0427, "fair_value": 24.819322, "relative_strength": -4.367213, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.332752, "energy": 24.437925, "activity_lines": [ 41.364667, 49.016155, 45.5061, 42.050411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.380001, "volume": 74610528, "typical_volume": 61471658.7, "trend": 38.559367, "fair_value": 24.985434, "relative_strength": 23.13775, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.612137, "energy": 28.21973, "activity_lines": [ 40.644001, 48.119919, 45.910619, 42.523785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }