{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33a24e6f-51a2-462c-accb-86fb686bbab1", "symbol": "OSXB3", "name": "OSX Brasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.759, "architecture_energy": 65.079, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 27.46, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.44, "rotation_down": 56.64, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.025333, 1.047636, 1.172476, 1.288129 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 1.450667, "distance_from_trend": -0.276195, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.290449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.680895, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.106589, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.453125, "excess_performance": -0.396077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.276195, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.680895, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071376, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.441066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.453125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.310811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5400, "relative_activity": 1.388175, "balance": 0.310811, "dry_up": 1.587404, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095971, "annualized_volatility": 0.664303, "from_high_reference": -0.609665, "from_low_reference": 0.193182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.450667, "fair_value_reference": 3.290449, "structural_low": 0.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.02525, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.659091, "median_excess_return": -0.028817, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.448133, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.073333, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.118499, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.390041, "worst_return": -0.433962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.147886, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.110695, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.485588, "worst_return": -0.482759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054502, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.493023, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194059, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173267, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065753, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096491, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.680851, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.42, "volume": 12200, "typical_volume": 106685.0, "trend": 5.230333, "fair_value": 8.795, "relative_strength": -25.864364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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1.611667, "fair_value": 3.408013, "relative_strength": -50.530735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.10521, "energy": 91.548443, "activity_lines": [ 1.119333, 1.222364, 1.346762, 1.458968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.05, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 3520.0, "trend": 1.585, "fair_value": 3.385, "relative_strength": -50.48957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.037435, "energy": 89.912874, "activity_lines": [ 1.071333, 1.179091, 1.307714, 1.422731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.99, "volume": 9100, "typical_volume": 3760.0, "trend": 1.550333, "fair_value": 3.360833, "relative_strength": -51.157711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.027829, "energy": 92.020438, "activity_lines": [ 1.027333, 1.131636, 1.266524, 1.384344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9, "volume": 7000, "typical_volume": 3650.0, "trend": 1.512, "fair_value": 3.335705, "relative_strength": -54.611803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.144791, "energy": 95.81769, "activity_lines": [ 0.983333, 1.075273, 1.220714, 1.342387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.1, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 3760.0, "trend": 1.479, "fair_value": 3.313333, "relative_strength": -44.527473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.927995, "energy": 77.556051, "activity_lines": [ 1.014667, 1.063273, 1.197667, 1.315806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 3890.0, "trend": 1.450667, "fair_value": 3.290449, "relative_strength": -44.106589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.758927, "energy": 65.079049, "activity_lines": [ 1.025333, 1.047636, 1.172476, 1.288129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }