{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33a53751-b63a-43da-b2f8-3d7ffc34ab51", "symbol": "CMOC", "name": "Invesco Bloomberg Commodity Carbon Tilted UCITS ETF USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.898, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.361, "architecture_energy": 50.578, "architecture_maturity": 37.154, "architecture_confidence": 48.989, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.21, "rotation_up": 75.01, "upward_expansion": 73.08, "deceleration": 61.49, "rotation_down": 8.94, "downward_expansion": 14.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.6474, 6.520473, 6.543243, 6.479595 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.681, "trend_reference": 6.289383, "distance_from_trend": 0.062266, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.169801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292313, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.528907, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.189213, "excess_performance": 0.018322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292313, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015289, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189213, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.074005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.074005, "dry_up": 0.004508, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023822, "annualized_volatility": 0.311004, "from_high_reference": -0.062447, "from_low_reference": 0.418622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.289383, "fair_value_reference": 5.169801, "structural_low": 5.618, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.11028, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.103357, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.135982, "worst_return": 0.084578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.343039, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.337507, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.343039, "worst_return": 0.343039, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.245577, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081496, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.245577, "worst_return": 0.245577, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041323, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005592, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084578, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 4.985, "volume": 410, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 4.985, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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21.399936, "energy": 28.551144, "activity_lines": [ 6.363867, 6.426218, 6.501133, 6.381404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.681, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 1646.0, "trend": 6.173683, "fair_value": 5.149785, "relative_strength": 5.636737, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.762704, "energy": 29.833276, "activity_lines": [ 6.484267, 6.451673, 6.518443, 6.417867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.681, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 943.2, "trend": 6.231533, "fair_value": 5.159859, "relative_strength": 4.718152, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.302691, "energy": 46.058365, "activity_lines": [ 6.5832, 6.483564, 6.53069, 6.450597 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.681, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 942.7, "trend": 6.289383, "fair_value": 5.169801, "relative_strength": 1.528907, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.361421, "energy": 50.578099, "activity_lines": [ 6.6474, 6.520473, 6.543243, 6.479595 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }