{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33a8a881-1a2d-495e-be7c-c7f65d1fd2d4", "symbol": "IMS", "name": "Invent Medic Sweden AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.722, "architecture_energy": 73.331, "architecture_maturity": 48.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.787, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.25, "rotation_up": 14.74, "upward_expansion": 16.48, "deceleration": 37.95, "rotation_down": 73.03, "downward_expansion": 94.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0931, 0.105818, 0.122456, 0.142931 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0915, "trend_reference": 0.175341, "distance_from_trend": -0.478161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.376279, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.756829, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.611397, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.634, "excess_performance": -0.695494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.478161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194356, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.756829, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.566114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.91477, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 736174, "relative_activity": 1.205647, "balance": 0.91477, "dry_up": 2.338166, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.37027, "annualized_volatility": 0.904314, "from_high_reference": -0.77125, "from_low_reference": 0.136646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.175341, "fair_value_reference": 0.376279, "structural_low": 0.0805, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.09201, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.090507, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.648578, "worst_return": -0.454546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.323427, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.296014, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.829458, "worst_return": -0.592466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.185644, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.259922, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.194529, "worst_return": -0.753282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.586077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.391566, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.27551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.362745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.146497, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.311897, "active": false }, 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"typical_volume": 534212.6, "trend": 0.199041, "fair_value": 0.392232, "relative_strength": -55.734563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.053982, "energy": 47.89959, "activity_lines": [ 0.117167, 0.124409, 0.139876, 0.162345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.085, "volume": 1107053, "typical_volume": 564068.25, "trend": 0.189841, "fair_value": 0.386811, "relative_strength": -59.125635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.833019, "energy": 64.991619, "activity_lines": [ 0.104333, 0.116286, 0.13286, 0.154987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0935, "volume": 1788716, "typical_volume": 642976.45, "trend": 0.182025, "fair_value": 0.381471, "relative_strength": -55.219678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.022155, "energy": 70.903167, "activity_lines": [ 0.097867, 0.110764, 0.127488, 0.148772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0915, "volume": 736174, "typical_volume": 610605.0, "trend": 0.175341, "fair_value": 0.376279, "relative_strength": -56.611397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.722361, "energy": 73.331043, "activity_lines": [ 0.0931, 0.105818, 0.122456, 0.142931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }