{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33a972ff-3822-46ab-b53d-433e7a325732", "symbol": "300429", "name": "Changzhou Tronly New Electronic Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.532, "architecture_energy": 79.793, "architecture_maturity": 23.395, "architecture_confidence": 81.842, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.09, "rotation_up": 10.7, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 34.23, "rotation_down": 73.82, "downward_expansion": 89.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.252, 12.079273, 13.227381, 13.570516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.7, "trend_reference": 14.124333, "distance_from_trend": -0.242442, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.565641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.960868, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.286191, "excess_performance": -0.293591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.242442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.371886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.286191, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886729, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134668144, "relative_activity": 1.190258, "balance": 0.886729, "dry_up": 1.390813, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191086, "annualized_volatility": 0.692353, "from_high_reference": -0.404894, "from_low_reference": 0.258824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.124333, "fair_value_reference": 12.565641, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.032638, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.04388, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.565079, "worst_return": -0.211707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.059103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.083837, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.449735, "worst_return": -0.158678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.074468, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048531, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.342318, "worst_return": -0.238366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"up", "direction": 57.403386, "energy": 60.477357, "activity_lines": [ 15.938666, 15.399091, 14.821667, 14.737677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.78, "volume": 177802301, "typical_volume": 98615287.85, "trend": 14.657333, "fair_value": 12.570769, "relative_strength": -6.54752, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.798332, "energy": 51.948492, "activity_lines": [ 15.701333, 15.340182, 14.844048, 14.748258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.22, "volume": 176499271, "typical_volume": 102240982.6, "trend": 14.529667, "fair_value": 12.572051, "relative_strength": -28.373232, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.870986, "energy": 28.287456, "activity_lines": [ 13.884, 14.44, 14.434095, 14.461978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.34, "volume": 162234489, "typical_volume": 105302542.5, "trend": 14.376, "fair_value": 12.566859, "relative_strength": -34.1563, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.967224, "energy": 69.429444, "activity_lines": [ 12.075333, 13.466, 13.968143, 14.127161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.26, "volume": 156035736, "typical_volume": 109415257.45, "trend": 14.212, "fair_value": 12.560897, "relative_strength": -33.073748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.507346, "energy": 82.952007, "activity_lines": [ 10.664, 12.585818, 13.518, 13.797097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.7, "volume": 134668144, "typical_volume": 113142025.1, "trend": 14.124333, "fair_value": 12.565641, "relative_strength": -25.960868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.531802, "energy": 79.793171, "activity_lines": [ 10.252, 12.079273, 13.227381, 13.570516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }