{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33b4d63c-256d-4909-9255-c6d0aa8ea9bd", "symbol": "600160", "name": "Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.061, "architecture_energy": 23.937, "architecture_maturity": 64.189, "architecture_confidence": 92.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.47, "rotation_up": 26.18, "upward_expansion": 56.71, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 35.59, "downward_expansion": 20.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.036667, 42.688009, 40.786991, 39.768883 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 43.290001, "trend_reference": 38.914257, "distance_from_trend": 0.112446, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.366058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.641884, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.404408, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100407, "excess_performance": 0.143611, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112446, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07046, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.641884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177545, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.164044, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2079, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100407, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.916863, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188149823, "relative_activity": 0.902015, "balance": 0.916863, "dry_up": 1.092237, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120898, "annualized_volatility": 0.517441, "from_high_reference": -0.208303, "from_low_reference": 0.60092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.914257, "fair_value_reference": 26.366058, "structural_low": 31.322511, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.003187, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.005156, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.436688, "worst_return": -0.152027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.084615, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.07405, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.311548, "worst_return": -0.248555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019753, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0297, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.434202, "worst_return": -0.233108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.240368, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.251466, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.614593, "worst_return": -0.147969, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.511789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061782, "active": false 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39.343924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.779999, "volume": 249805437, "typical_volume": 202547569.3, "trend": 38.685754, "fair_value": 26.026624, "relative_strength": 11.934325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.673542, "energy": 24.860044, "activity_lines": [ 42.355333, 42.841147, 40.226613, 39.421919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.52, "volume": 193001078, "typical_volume": 205868812.0, "trend": 38.746299, "fair_value": 26.188446, "relative_strength": 10.030341, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.202223, "energy": 24.318854, "activity_lines": [ 40.686666, 42.458371, 40.329183, 39.475741 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.290001, "volume": 188149823, "typical_volume": 208588238.35, "trend": 38.914257, "fair_value": 26.366058, "relative_strength": 16.404408, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.061336, "energy": 23.937164, "activity_lines": [ 41.036667, 42.688009, 40.786991, 39.768883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }