{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33b506ad-e4cf-4c6b-baf0-64a85f5ced3b", "symbol": "QNST", "name": "QuinStreet Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.169, "architecture_energy": 81.691, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.977, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.14, "rotation_up": 79.93, "upward_expansion": 89.27, "deceleration": 48.36, "rotation_down": 9.61, "downward_expansion": 15.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.546667, 16.384909, 14.81981, 14.071871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.08, "trend_reference": 13.395667, "distance_from_trend": 0.573643, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.632051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348511, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 31.397467, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.722222, "excess_performance": 0.534769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.573643, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025964, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348511, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.47796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.313975, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.54954, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.722222, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.002891, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7119996, "relative_activity": 1.87425, "balance": 2.002891, "dry_up": 1.164933, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088717, "annualized_volatility": 0.594047, "from_high_reference": -0.009398, "from_low_reference": 1.048591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.395667, "fair_value_reference": 15.632051, "structural_low": 10.29, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.051873, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.027516, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.31058, "worst_return": -0.240249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.104796, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.055482, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.42269, "worst_return": -0.397403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122099, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.019601, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.655993, "worst_return": -0.390909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 15.15, "volume": 3910845, "typical_volume": 3735392.35, "trend": 13.155, "fair_value": 15.5175, "relative_strength": -0.581186, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.367229, "energy": 80.910102, "activity_lines": [ 15.934667, 14.913818, 13.865619, 13.412344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.5, "volume": 3221970, "typical_volume": 3672877.4, "trend": 13.202333, "fair_value": 15.559295, "relative_strength": 1.767571, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.671193, "energy": 72.505388, "activity_lines": [ 15.856, 15.171273, 14.084286, 13.563634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.08, "volume": 7119996, "typical_volume": 3798850.2, "trend": 13.395667, "fair_value": 15.632051, "relative_strength": 31.397467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.168598, "energy": 81.691258, "activity_lines": [ 17.546667, 16.384909, 14.81981, 14.071871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }