{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33b557ab-b94e-4af0-84bf-98e3a0ecee77", "symbol": "PSAN", "name": "PSI Software SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.782, "architecture_energy": 7.16, "architecture_maturity": 36.979, "architecture_confidence": 78.258, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 78.43, "rotation_up": 29.88, "upward_expansion": 19.27, "deceleration": 59.35, "rotation_down": 38.39, "downward_expansion": 34.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.366666, 45.429091, 45.382381, 45.401935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.799999, "trend_reference": 45.383333, "distance_from_trend": -0.012853, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.038141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.491437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.997932, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011038, "excess_performance": -0.075677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002577, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.491437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181889, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011038, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.30485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2976, "relative_activity": 1.255802, "balance": 2.30485, "dry_up": 1.438307, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027988, "annualized_volatility": 0.103561, "from_high_reference": -0.054852, "from_low_reference": 0.866667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.383333, "fair_value_reference": 30.038141, "structural_low": 43.900002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.003704, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.027933, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.251142, "worst_return": -0.133418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.069767, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.064058, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.215201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.175799, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.046852, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.677778, 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0.325, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006601, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003663, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": 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45.436667, 45.419355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.0, "volume": 657, "typical_volume": 3674.65, "trend": 45.343333, "fair_value": 29.673718, "relative_strength": 6.402512, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.929098, "energy": 13.164683, "activity_lines": [ 45.54, 45.414545, 45.390476, 45.395054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.5, "volume": 3520, "typical_volume": 3790.75, "trend": 45.36, "fair_value": 29.781731, "relative_strength": 5.755392, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.94458, "energy": 17.477065, "activity_lines": [ 45.553334, 45.438182, 45.39619, 45.405161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.9, "volume": 6481, "typical_volume": 3099.2, "trend": 45.39, "fair_value": 29.922756, "relative_strength": 3.78436, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.539143, "energy": 27.18225, "activity_lines": [ 45.673334, 45.541818, 45.442381, 45.44 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.799999, "volume": 2976, "typical_volume": 2369.8, "trend": 45.383333, "fair_value": 30.038141, "relative_strength": -1.997932, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.782428, "energy": 7.159549, "activity_lines": [ 45.366666, 45.429091, 45.382381, 45.401935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }