{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33b66419-e397-450a-851d-5e6d077e9bf3", "symbol": "DATA", "name": "Evolve Cloud Computing Index Fund ETF Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.839, "architecture_energy": 30.439, "architecture_maturity": 72.415, "architecture_confidence": 88.325, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.53, "rotation_up": 26.25, "upward_expansion": 57.84, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 30.17, "downward_expansion": 21.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.501983, 32.835842, 32.433991, 31.007761 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.57, "trend_reference": 29.378122, "distance_from_trend": 0.142687, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.813755, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300469, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.847206, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.322043, "excess_performance": 0.201622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142687, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045008, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031322, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008472, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040032, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.322043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.254902, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1600, "relative_activity": 0.197653, "balance": 7.254902, "dry_up": 0.373687, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045633, "annualized_volatility": 0.321779, "from_high_reference": -0.049537, "from_low_reference": 0.436169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.378122, "fair_value_reference": 25.813755, "structural_low": 23.374689, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007417, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.005434, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.110986, "worst_return": -0.117683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001754, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036736, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214285, "worst_return": -0.17045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077904, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.023669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.234094, "worst_return": -0.107021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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10510.0, "trend": 28.995613, "fair_value": 25.471681, "relative_strength": 2.463774, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.435794, "energy": 57.019755, "activity_lines": [ 33.712813, 33.750137, 31.654292, 30.222866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.499969, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 10245.0, "trend": 29.063416, "fair_value": 25.551753, "relative_strength": -3.340609, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.946653, "energy": 41.657759, "activity_lines": [ 32.920936, 33.40156, 31.831336, 30.384437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.880165, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 10130.0, "trend": 29.10557, "fair_value": 25.627851, "relative_strength": -5.112095, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.320631, "energy": 32.219065, "activity_lines": [ 32.076465, 32.934867, 31.918318, 30.501647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.619999, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 9595.0, "trend": 29.239655, "fair_value": 25.71681, "relative_strength": 0.990498, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.798084, "energy": 28.839454, "activity_lines": [ 32.105904, 32.798529, 32.14753, 30.728384 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.57, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 8095.0, "trend": 29.378122, "fair_value": 25.813755, "relative_strength": 0.847206, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.839487, "energy": 30.438546, "activity_lines": [ 32.501983, 32.835842, 32.433991, 31.007761 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }