{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33be4dda-db19-4a81-af07-efe375d8c3ad", "symbol": "WDH", "name": "Waterdrop Inc ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.607, "architecture_energy": 69.995, "architecture_maturity": 73.216, "architecture_confidence": 88.813, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.2, "rotation_up": 20.65, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.67, "rotation_down": 69.38, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.090667, 1.138545, 1.277555, 1.378318 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.0, "trend_reference": 1.501632, "distance_from_trend": -0.334058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.30783, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235375, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.203663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.449864, "excess_performance": -0.575489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.334058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110372, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235375, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.375071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.452037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.449864, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.200202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1819482, "relative_activity": 1.895332, "balance": 0.200202, "dry_up": 0.936362, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125823, "annualized_volatility": 0.376518, "from_high_reference": -0.52553, "from_low_reference": 0.041667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.501632, "fair_value_reference": 1.30783, "structural_low": 0.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.038479, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.057639, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.18, "worst_return": -0.195313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.103448, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.219852, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.240385, "worst_return": -0.442308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.121872, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030399, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.227849, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 1.12, "volume": 848454, "typical_volume": 938286.6, "trend": 1.553785, "fair_value": 1.314249, "relative_strength": -37.10624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.7108, "energy": 67.653615, "activity_lines": [ 1.154, 1.212, 1.349371, 1.440427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.12, "volume": 438128, "typical_volume": 916401.15, "trend": 1.52889, "fair_value": 1.311076, "relative_strength": -37.231915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.118888, "energy": 65.934411, "activity_lines": [ 1.142667, 1.183273, 1.317773, 1.41244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.0, "volume": 1819482, "typical_volume": 959980.5, "trend": 1.501632, "fair_value": 1.30783, "relative_strength": -45.203663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.607065, "energy": 69.995122, "activity_lines": [ 1.090667, 1.138545, 1.277555, 1.378318 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }