{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33c94a9b-5d05-464d-9b64-81e334940814", "symbol": "MAD", "name": "Mader Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.314, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.6, "architecture_energy": 68.187, "architecture_maturity": 9.295, "architecture_confidence": 80.756, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.84, "rotation_up": 11.36, "upward_expansion": 17.51, "deceleration": 34.35, "rotation_down": 71.35, "downward_expansion": 88.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.309333, 7.572909, 7.814143, 7.872538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.43, "trend_reference": 7.956667, "distance_from_trend": -0.066192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.827244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.264261, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03881, "excess_performance": -0.102515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066192, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002674, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074844, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122968, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.284821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 709088, "relative_activity": 1.437656, "balance": 1.284821, "dry_up": 0.911486, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073507, "annualized_volatility": 0.344712, "from_high_reference": -0.228453, "from_low_reference": 0.092647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.956667, "fair_value_reference": 6.827244, "structural_low": 6.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088888, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.049367, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.17801, "worst_return": -0.139837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061874, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.046038, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.733527, "worst_return": -0.094792, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.071081, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.140227, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.690343, "worst_return": -0.100632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033101, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.208406, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.195479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12234, "active": false }, { 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8.018731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.33, "volume": 331561, "typical_volume": 538310.7, "trend": 7.978667, "fair_value": 6.818809, "relative_strength": -8.850036, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.570643, "energy": 55.569436, "activity_lines": [ 7.637333, 7.861273, 7.957, 7.976194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.9, "volume": 512105, "typical_volume": 500339.85, "trend": 7.958, "fair_value": 6.823314, "relative_strength": -16.060162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.746159, "energy": 74.292783, "activity_lines": [ 7.356667, 7.656, 7.859143, 7.906602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.43, "volume": 709088, "typical_volume": 493225.0, "trend": 7.956667, "fair_value": 6.827244, "relative_strength": -12.264261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.599742, "energy": 68.187293, "activity_lines": [ 7.309333, 7.572909, 7.814143, 7.872538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }