{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33ca6322-1e66-48a5-a401-74f3acbaa608", "symbol": "SELK", "name": "Selkirk Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.381, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.752, "architecture_energy": 16.621, "architecture_maturity": 20.284, "architecture_confidence": 64.028, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.39, "rotation_up": 24.3, "upward_expansion": 16.92, "deceleration": 55.54, "rotation_down": 38.76, "downward_expansion": 62.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.017713, 0.017687, 0.018319, 0.018575 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.019, "trend_reference": 0.018805, "distance_from_trend": 0.01037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.023673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.197392, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.589821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002625, "excess_performance": -0.05386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01037, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056053, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.197392, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008208, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155898, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046935, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.477321, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6820025, "relative_activity": 6.883204, "balance": 2.477321, "dry_up": 3.44885, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145101, "annualized_volatility": 0.5715, "from_high_reference": -0.321429, "from_low_reference": 0.217949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.018805, "fair_value_reference": 0.023673, "structural_low": 0.0156, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.055556, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017089, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.055556, "worst_return": 0.055556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 0.0325, "volume": 2208343, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 0.03025, "volume": 3502033, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.096001, "energy": 37.547243, "activity_lines": [ 0.017853, 0.018296, 0.018758, 0.018883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0165, "volume": 2500054, "typical_volume": 603351.1, "trend": 0.018862, "fair_value": 0.023807, "relative_strength": -27.003998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.680801, "energy": 35.692433, "activity_lines": [ 0.017527, 0.017898, 0.018521, 0.018726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0163, "volume": 1828914, "typical_volume": 692133.3, "trend": 0.018788, "fair_value": 0.023724, "relative_strength": -27.965956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.891077, "energy": 30.543456, "activity_lines": [ 0.017153, 0.017518, 0.018279, 0.018561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.019, "volume": 6820025, "typical_volume": 990821.35, "trend": 0.018805, "fair_value": 0.023673, "relative_strength": -15.589821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.75213, "energy": 16.621173, "activity_lines": [ 0.017713, 0.017687, 0.018319, 0.018575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }