{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33cbadba-33fd-4bf7-b40f-c72f6f476f3e", "symbol": "ALEC", "name": "Alector Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.99, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.723, "architecture_energy": 53.885, "architecture_maturity": 14.46, "architecture_confidence": 90.191, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.78, "rotation_up": 18.85, "upward_expansion": 13.47, "deceleration": 37.52, "rotation_down": 58.85, "downward_expansion": 84.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.599333, 1.655909, 1.820738, 1.917495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.78, "trend_reference": 1.9905, "distance_from_trend": -0.105752, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.493238, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.490444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.662554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091837, "excess_performance": -0.27929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105752, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046897, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.490444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131619, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091837, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.694637, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8110867, "relative_activity": 2.32966, "balance": 1.694637, "dry_up": 1.110157, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193172, "annualized_volatility": 0.852226, "from_high_reference": -0.476455, "from_low_reference": 0.633028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.9905, "fair_value_reference": 3.493238, "structural_low": 1.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.005618, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": -0.007912, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.435252, "worst_return": -0.344857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.042113, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.143243, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.766917, "worst_return": -0.425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.157609, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.23975, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.346405, "worst_return": -0.538153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.419372, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.615178, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.215139, "worst_return": -0.610944, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.405405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.415094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.404762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129252, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169355, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.239796, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", 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3558334.85, "trend": 1.992833, "fair_value": 3.607533, "relative_strength": -34.161217, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.521787, "energy": 29.157498, "activity_lines": [ 1.706, 1.758909, 1.944286, 1.995548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.48, "volume": 2229418, "typical_volume": 3411921.0, "trend": 1.993833, "fair_value": 3.576187, "relative_strength": -33.612757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.668615, "energy": 52.451002, "activity_lines": [ 1.614, 1.692091, 1.889881, 1.962462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.51, "volume": 1881109, "typical_volume": 3263598.1, "trend": 1.993167, "fair_value": 3.529648, "relative_strength": -32.464745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.11304, "energy": 64.918583, "activity_lines": [ 1.55, 1.643091, 1.84081, 1.931247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.78, "volume": 8110867, "typical_volume": 3481567.0, "trend": 1.9905, "fair_value": 3.493238, "relative_strength": -23.662554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.722677, "energy": 53.884948, "activity_lines": [ 1.599333, 1.655909, 1.820738, 1.917495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }