{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33d637f3-ca05-49de-90f9-a259a6a518ff", "symbol": "000803", "name": "Shandong High Speed Renewable Energy Group Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.963, "architecture_energy": 49.652, "architecture_maturity": 38.613, "architecture_confidence": 87.446, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.32, "rotation_up": 24.28, "upward_expansion": 7.83, "deceleration": 57.69, "rotation_down": 50.61, "downward_expansion": 78.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.732, 6.786909, 7.23919, 7.657505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.09, "trend_reference": 8.142333, "distance_from_trend": -0.129242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.925705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196482, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.831297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237634, "excess_performance": -0.245034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007879, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242488, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057729, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.022756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64039754, "relative_activity": 1.055057, "balance": 1.022756, "dry_up": 1.053341, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090919, "annualized_volatility": 0.415454, "from_high_reference": -0.370896, "from_low_reference": 0.209898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.142333, "fair_value_reference": 5.925705, "structural_low": 5.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.028765, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.012596, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.217184, "worst_return": -0.268456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.080123, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002053, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.41018, "worst_return": -0.248639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.207547, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.147516, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.702778, "worst_return": -0.378238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 8.202333, "fair_value": 5.937491, "relative_strength": -22.23937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.345475, "energy": 82.786781, "activity_lines": [ 6.896, 7.226727, 7.751095, 8.052495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.18, "volume": 44019184, "typical_volume": 72072214.5, "trend": 8.176667, "fair_value": 5.929808, "relative_strength": -19.740145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.441273, "energy": 87.651013, "activity_lines": [ 6.609333, 6.978, 7.554667, 7.922022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.6, "volume": 91000770, "typical_volume": 67477508.45, "trend": 8.159, "fair_value": 5.925, "relative_strength": -14.341878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.010678, "energy": 78.446995, "activity_lines": [ 6.548, 6.849091, 7.414143, 7.820301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.69, "volume": 56682760, "typical_volume": 62079229.35, "trend": 8.144333, "fair_value": 5.921859, "relative_strength": -11.708048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.201751, "energy": 69.424699, "activity_lines": [ 6.57, 6.770909, 7.300286, 7.725527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.09, "volume": 64039754, "typical_volume": 60697930.2, "trend": 8.142333, "fair_value": 5.925705, "relative_strength": -10.831297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.962852, "energy": 49.652097, "activity_lines": [ 6.732, 6.786909, 7.23919, 7.657505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }