{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33d86af4-a9eb-4692-aa27-3360feedafaf", "symbol": "FGP", "name": "FirstGroup plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.424, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.146, "architecture_energy": 17.585, "architecture_maturity": 15.632, "architecture_confidence": 44.93, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.18, "rotation_up": 43.36, "upward_expansion": 43.24, "deceleration": 41.95, "rotation_down": 27.13, "downward_expansion": 12.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 182.246667, 181.683162, 177.214238, 176.707273 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 183.7, "trend_reference": 178.120307, "distance_from_trend": 0.031325, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 174.703956, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051493, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.506622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014485, "excess_performance": -0.080764, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031325, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051493, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09014, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110896, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014485, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.937138, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9644616, "relative_activity": 2.076064, "balance": 0.937138, "dry_up": 1.514127, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068408, "annualized_volatility": 0.234076, "from_high_reference": -0.235762, "from_low_reference": 0.208071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.120307, "fair_value_reference": 174.703956, "structural_low": 152.060554, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.03648, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017629, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.218478, "worst_return": -0.072642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.059793, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.034154, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.489131, "worst_return": -0.146509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.192715, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.141689, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.381801, "worst_return": -0.105091, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.434284, "energy": 24.554326, "activity_lines": [ 180.9548, 178.059705, 174.412941, 175.784107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 181.8, "volume": 5305823, "typical_volume": 4446170.35, "trend": 178.51364, "fair_value": 174.24096, "relative_strength": -12.413182, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.926329, "energy": 15.262747, "activity_lines": [ 180.707707, 179.307092, 175.21385, 175.978496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 184.4, "volume": 7201315, "typical_volume": 4623478.7, "trend": 178.290307, "fair_value": 174.482708, "relative_strength": -11.619653, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.997698, "energy": 14.460909, "activity_lines": [ 181.5, 180.713704, 176.271901, 176.358261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 183.7, "volume": 9644616, "typical_volume": 4645625.0, "trend": 178.120307, "fair_value": 174.703956, "relative_strength": -11.506622, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.145775, "energy": 17.584637, "activity_lines": [ 182.246667, 181.683162, 177.214238, 176.707273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }