{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33d97cb3-1200-4fe0-ad4c-7e234b011172", "symbol": "603356", "name": "Xuancheng Valin Precision Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.197, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.968, "architecture_energy": 73.226, "architecture_maturity": 13.6, "architecture_confidence": 74.606, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.76, "rotation_up": 8.78, "upward_expansion": 16.57, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 73.29, "downward_expansion": 89.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.684667, 15.581818, 16.733286, 17.127935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.83, "trend_reference": 17.491667, "distance_from_trend": -0.094998, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.092308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.274355, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107666, "excess_performance": -0.064462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094998, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034031, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123308, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165413, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107666, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12179300, "relative_activity": 0.627611, "balance": 0.729012, "dry_up": 0.768464, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121386, "annualized_volatility": 0.487434, "from_high_reference": -0.277499, "from_low_reference": 0.346088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.491667, "fair_value_reference": 14.092308, "structural_low": 11.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.036855, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.042656, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.417797, "worst_return": -0.340705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.163401, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": 0.103006, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.235401, "worst_return": -0.156274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.141734, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.121253, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.334728, "worst_return": -0.140966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22598, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107304, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.981397, "energy": 59.211128, "activity_lines": [ 16.150666, 17.065272, 17.612762, 17.711247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.2, "volume": 16840644, "typical_volume": 21409647.85, "trend": 17.441, "fair_value": 14.075705, "relative_strength": -14.177196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.967399, "energy": 79.943913, "activity_lines": [ 14.957333, 16.229091, 17.173524, 17.434903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.29, "volume": 16870294, "typical_volume": 20134067.55, "trend": 17.437, "fair_value": 14.076859, "relative_strength": -7.404181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.771114, "energy": 78.662003, "activity_lines": [ 14.464, 15.713091, 16.867619, 17.231613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.83, "volume": 12179300, "typical_volume": 19405807.55, "trend": 17.491667, "fair_value": 14.092308, "relative_strength": -0.274355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.967806, "energy": 73.226377, "activity_lines": [ 14.684667, 15.581818, 16.733286, 17.127935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }