{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33db4896-fc3a-4591-87d5-e5d8efb2bdc7", "symbol": "SPUS", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 Scored and Screened UCITS ETF UCITS ETF USD CAP", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.106, "architecture_energy": 69.914, "architecture_maturity": 48.811, "architecture_confidence": 72.732, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.51, "rotation_up": 56.0, "upward_expansion": 82.97, "deceleration": 70.66, "rotation_down": 28.37, "downward_expansion": 11.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.312933, 19.210145, 19.014924, 18.644254 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.917999, "trend_reference": 18.2272, "distance_from_trend": 0.092762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.257392, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.225166, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.27015, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126074, "excess_performance": 0.074839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036653, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.225166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037278, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042701, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02195, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126074, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.342535, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45837, "relative_activity": 1.146339, "balance": 1.342535, "dry_up": 0.703454, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015302, "annualized_volatility": 0.125822, "from_high_reference": -0.000201, "from_low_reference": 0.255373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.2272, "fair_value_reference": 16.257392, "structural_low": 16.23, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037272, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046223, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 14.322, "volume": 18695, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"fair_value": 16.160383, "relative_strength": 2.367771, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.31244, "energy": 58.304247, "activity_lines": [ 19.088067, 19.088418, 18.750138, 18.412639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.934999, "volume": 12189, "typical_volume": 43236.95, "trend": 18.0983, "fair_value": 16.189589, "relative_strength": 0.78492, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.1542, "energy": 54.058891, "activity_lines": [ 19.0312, 19.063545, 18.8124, 18.469701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.038, "volume": 7635, "typical_volume": 37719.0, "trend": 18.152133, "fair_value": 16.21926, "relative_strength": 0.057298, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.635554, "energy": 46.98456, "activity_lines": [ 19.0266, 19.057509, 18.876762, 18.530327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.917999, "volume": 45837, "typical_volume": 39985.55, "trend": 18.2272, "fair_value": 16.257392, "relative_strength": 4.27015, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.105861, "energy": 69.914233, "activity_lines": [ 19.312933, 19.210145, 19.014924, 18.644254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }