{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33dc7631-b478-4afc-a0e7-e1c5de5e5c4e", "symbol": "RIV", "name": "RiverNorth Opportunities Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.945, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.774, "architecture_energy": 18.583, "architecture_maturity": 46.39, "architecture_confidence": 77.596, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.64, "rotation_up": 35.84, "upward_expansion": 57.32, "deceleration": 81.75, "rotation_down": 26.14, "downward_expansion": 18.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.42262, 11.4258, 11.412502, 11.353997 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.59, "trend_reference": 11.312248, "distance_from_trend": 0.024553, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.723244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191989, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.924481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013739, "excess_performance": -0.111886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024553, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191989, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026446, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006851, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.257489, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 322300, "relative_activity": 0.96255, "balance": 1.257489, "dry_up": 1.08594, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025653, "annualized_volatility": 0.110478, "from_high_reference": -0.01252, "from_low_reference": 0.137096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.312248, "fair_value_reference": 9.723244, "structural_low": 10.565601, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.00675, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.009533, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.058963, "worst_return": -0.0747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.003998, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.035902, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.083567, "worst_return": -0.04723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.074331, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.020184, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.130922, "worst_return": -0.036472, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 55.222785, "energy": 36.742843, "activity_lines": [ 11.487771, 11.45448, 11.37291, 11.327045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.35, "volume": 494501, "typical_volume": 357439.4, "trend": 11.276148, "fair_value": 9.649519, "relative_strength": -5.805654, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.306463, "energy": 26.464339, "activity_lines": [ 11.453709, 11.438993, 11.379706, 11.332571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.24, "volume": 311611, "typical_volume": 349619.8, "trend": 11.284027, "fair_value": 9.672693, "relative_strength": -5.977473, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.927193, "energy": 13.463667, "activity_lines": [ 11.381755, 11.405114, 11.376721, 11.330239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.36, "volume": 326051, "typical_volume": 341477.1, "trend": 11.297732, "fair_value": 9.697487, "relative_strength": -5.779315, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.955793, "energy": 14.100641, "activity_lines": [ 11.361837, 11.394537, 11.384882, 11.335141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.59, "volume": 322300, "typical_volume": 334839.6, "trend": 11.312248, "fair_value": 9.723244, "relative_strength": -6.924481, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.773838, "energy": 18.583181, "activity_lines": [ 11.42262, 11.4258, 11.412502, 11.353997 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }