{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33e17fc1-801e-413e-97e8-c754be65c26a", "symbol": "MEL", "name": "Meli\u00e1 Hotels International, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.934, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.732, "architecture_energy": 33.786, "architecture_maturity": 51.691, "architecture_confidence": 83.529, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.66, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 44.53, "deceleration": 87.08, "rotation_down": 55.12, "downward_expansion": 40.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.391333, 10.859788, 11.087978, 10.737887 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.17, "trend_reference": 10.052757, "distance_from_trend": 0.011663, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.373597, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379245, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.502404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.312258, "excess_performance": 0.187827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13734, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.312258, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.341829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1071193, "relative_activity": 0.638024, "balance": 0.341829, "dry_up": 0.786942, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061916, "annualized_volatility": 0.296343, "from_high_reference": -0.173796, "from_low_reference": 0.510022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.052757, "fair_value_reference": 7.373597, "structural_low": 7.62, "invalidation": "A 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"start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06859, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055757, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042127, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001933, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 10.59, "volume": 1591641, "typical_volume": 2008544.2, "trend": 9.81309, "fair_value": 7.294457, "relative_strength": 6.381797, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.940838, "energy": 31.618831, "activity_lines": [ 11.300949, 11.415936, 11.253065, 10.657098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.44, "volume": 1335918, "typical_volume": 1949991.35, "trend": 9.901924, "fair_value": 7.320831, "relative_strength": 2.928802, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.716318, "energy": 21.545836, "activity_lines": [ 10.91902, 11.229705, 11.22029, 10.697544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.34, "volume": 1286107, "typical_volume": 1849191.9, "trend": 9.982757, "fair_value": 7.347775, "relative_strength": 0.953381, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.776381, "energy": 27.090309, "activity_lines": [ 10.625093, 11.050019, 11.166467, 10.725807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.17, "volume": 1071193, "typical_volume": 1678921.75, "trend": 10.052757, "fair_value": 7.373597, "relative_strength": -2.502404, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.731744, "energy": 33.786457, "activity_lines": [ 10.391333, 10.859788, 11.087978, 10.737887 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }