{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33e1ac61-a537-40e6-bf69-535dd063d652", "symbol": "XZEZ", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI EMU ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.557, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.449, "architecture_energy": 59.2, "architecture_maturity": 77.317, "architecture_confidence": 56.534, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.52, "rotation_up": 49.21, "upward_expansion": 72.5, "deceleration": 65.09, "rotation_down": 27.89, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.795336, 89.867456, 87.977572, 86.167936 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 89.980003, "trend_reference": 84.233667, "distance_from_trend": 0.068219, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.049616, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183175, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.989485, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105677, "excess_performance": -0.065215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068219, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059248, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032068, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 20.699571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 20.699571, "dry_up": 0.493982, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014166, "annualized_volatility": 0.148918, "from_high_reference": -0.016934, "from_low_reference": 0.190999 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.233667, "fair_value_reference": 76.049616, "structural_low": 75.550003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.002681, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.010073, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.081605, "worst_return": -0.095969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.029833, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.025574, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.084686, "worst_return": -0.030395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05522, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.024184, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.132128, "worst_return": -0.030637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 90.226666, 88.830909, 85.944857, 84.565807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.220001, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 2140.9, "trend": 83.445667, "fair_value": 75.565, "relative_strength": -4.284908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.996525, "energy": 87.402722, "activity_lines": [ 90.346666, 89.347636, 86.551476, 85.022473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 88.940002, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 621.9, "trend": 83.707, "fair_value": 75.713077, "relative_strength": -5.204038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.887417, "energy": 65.518509, "activity_lines": [ 89.866001, 89.503636, 87.007, 85.376946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.980003, "volume": 1188, "typical_volume": 677.6, "trend": 83.992667, "fair_value": 75.879295, "relative_strength": -4.517819, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.724121, "energy": 62.604066, "activity_lines": [ 89.832668, 89.731637, 87.518001, 85.781656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.980003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 677.15, "trend": 84.233667, "fair_value": 76.049616, "relative_strength": -6.989485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.449046, "energy": 59.199873, "activity_lines": [ 89.795336, 89.867456, 87.977572, 86.167936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }