{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33e1c22c-843a-4ba0-8a97-9185a56f7c78", "symbol": "002752", "name": "Sunrise Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.187, "architecture_energy": 47.148, "architecture_maturity": 20.017, "architecture_confidence": 93.67, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.42, "rotation_up": 18.11, "upward_expansion": 7.4, "deceleration": 46.24, "rotation_down": 54.93, "downward_expansion": 78.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.874667, 5.912545, 6.222337, 6.311668 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.94, "trend_reference": 6.423102, "distance_from_trend": -0.075213, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.475799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.444385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.081919, "excess_performance": -0.089318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084773, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084444, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096979, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081919, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.399449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58764036, "relative_activity": 0.59617, "balance": 0.399449, "dry_up": 0.687846, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071622, "annualized_volatility": 0.359631, "from_high_reference": -0.370678, "from_low_reference": 0.134203 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.423102, "fair_value_reference": 5.475799, "structural_low": 5.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.030236, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.003767, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.183721, "worst_return": -0.092672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.066415, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.024235, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.660465, "worst_return": -0.012915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.191776, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.190265, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411628, "worst_return": 0.027564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037234, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014337, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026275, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059967, "active": false 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"direction": -70.490051, "energy": 60.937275, "activity_lines": [ 5.859333, 5.987818, 6.316101, 6.387202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.87, "volume": 55176738, "typical_volume": 99291321.15, "trend": 6.4434, "fair_value": 5.467109, "relative_strength": -5.012242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.998154, "energy": 48.234393, "activity_lines": [ 5.858667, 5.932364, 6.265161, 6.344146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.94, "volume": 58764036, "typical_volume": 98569291.95, "trend": 6.423102, "fair_value": 5.475799, "relative_strength": -8.444385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.186594, "energy": 47.147856, "activity_lines": [ 5.874667, 5.912545, 6.222337, 6.311668 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }