{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33e1eb00-2184-497e-a6cd-568a414457f3", "symbol": "HGR", "name": "Harvest REIT Leaders Income ETF CAD Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.879, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.458, "architecture_energy": 24.23, "architecture_maturity": 45.38, "architecture_confidence": 42.317, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.84, "rotation_up": 38.9, "upward_expansion": 63.58, "deceleration": 59.55, "rotation_down": 25.52, "downward_expansion": 15.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.451906, 5.463785, 5.423132, 5.382824 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.38, "trend_reference": 5.340568, "distance_from_trend": 0.007384, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.124116, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.436149, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021589, "excess_performance": -0.098833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022389, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021589, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299783, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169600, "relative_activity": 2.699777, "balance": 0.299783, "dry_up": 1.251592, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026686, "annualized_volatility": 0.138174, "from_high_reference": -0.035739, "from_low_reference": 0.08506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.340568, "fair_value_reference": 5.124116, "structural_low": 5.007967, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006186, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.009615, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.065718, "worst_return": -0.083701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032073, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.060176, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.082465, "worst_return": -0.102308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028584, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061235, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.06846, "worst_return": -0.223486, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.517786, "energy": 48.525865, "activity_lines": [ 5.510036, 5.476237, 5.411072, 5.371387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.45, "volume": 95100, "typical_volume": 56870.0, "trend": 5.332408, "fair_value": 5.120289, "relative_strength": -5.684159, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.843593, "energy": 33.687854, "activity_lines": [ 5.491181, 5.477108, 5.421047, 5.379754 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.38, "volume": 169600, "typical_volume": 62820.0, "trend": 5.340568, "fair_value": 5.124116, "relative_strength": -9.436149, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.458038, "energy": 24.229983, "activity_lines": [ 5.451906, 5.463785, 5.423132, 5.382824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }