{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33e366c7-5796-477f-b51e-3804e5c7ea20", "symbol": "USA", "name": "Americas Gold and Silver Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.276, "architecture_energy": 62.407, "architecture_maturity": 29.347, "architecture_confidence": 90.577, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.15, "rotation_up": 15.33, "upward_expansion": 12.46, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 64.86, "downward_expansion": 85.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.991333, 6.269273, 6.952095, 7.538258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.01, "trend_reference": 8.413667, "distance_from_trend": -0.166832, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.346378, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.094802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.909048, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.280287, "excess_performance": -0.400709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166832, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007666, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.094802, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.048976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.468165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.280287, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566323, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7419200, "relative_activity": 1.212891, "balance": 0.566323, "dry_up": 1.025138, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158455, "annualized_volatility": 0.955298, "from_high_reference": -0.504243, "from_low_reference": 1.317355 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.413667, "fair_value_reference": 3.346378, "structural_low": 4.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.031754, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.063473, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.311111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.017544, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.043552, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.634615, "worst_return": -0.522613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.168317, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.070539, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.27027, "worst_return": -0.492462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.189189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222008, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039062, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075198, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.275, "volume": 70640, "typical_volume": 182668.0, "trend": 1.519167, "fair_value": 3.912019, "relative_strength": -20.593559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.544425, "energy": 58.985839, "activity_lines": [ 7.222667, 7.560182, 7.957667, 8.415742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.06, "volume": 5415400, "typical_volume": 7348780.0, "trend": 8.66, "fair_value": 3.230769, "relative_strength": -21.299418, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.214074, "energy": 67.408594, "activity_lines": [ 6.844667, 7.235273, 7.718857, 8.243914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.32, "volume": 5194800, "typical_volume": 7180545.0, "trend": 8.584, "fair_value": 3.256378, "relative_strength": -31.044671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.072068, "energy": 80.145203, "activity_lines": [ 6.272, 6.810364, 7.432333, 8.02843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.6, "volume": 6823300, "typical_volume": 7101625.0, "trend": 8.504667, "fair_value": 3.283782, "relative_strength": -27.8627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.918007, "energy": 78.576484, "activity_lines": [ 5.93, 6.503818, 7.210905, 7.835914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.33, "volume": 5645600, "typical_volume": 7044235.0, "trend": 8.449, "fair_value": 3.309776, "relative_strength": -31.265609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.475024, "energy": 81.556728, "activity_lines": [ 5.63, 6.209273, 6.990143, 7.631097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.01, "volume": 7419200, "typical_volume": 6116955.0, "trend": 8.413667, "fair_value": 3.346378, "relative_strength": -12.909048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.276074, "energy": 62.407408, "activity_lines": [ 5.991333, 6.269273, 6.952095, 7.538258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }