{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "33e4803b-c0cf-4da2-9abf-f37dc9bd2086",
    "symbol": "5OX",
    "name": "Mary Chia Holdings Limited",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -75.61,
    "architecture_energy": 89.033,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.759,
    "architecture_confidence": 96,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 0.17,
        "rotation_up": 28.3,
        "upward_expansion": 21.73,
        "deceleration": 37.09,
        "rotation_down": 64.32,
        "downward_expansion": 99.73
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.0166,
        0.017545,
        0.020129,
        0.02357
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 0.016,
    "trend_reference": 0.028467,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.437939,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.024301,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.341599,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -56.244001,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.567568,
    "excess_performance": -0.722403,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.437939,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.214351,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.341599,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.558764,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.56244,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.446391,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.567568,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.220958,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.220958,
      "dry_up": 0.032394,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.139423,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.786872,
      "from_high_reference": -0.733333,
      "from_low_reference": 0.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.028467,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.024301,
      "structural_low": 0.016,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 29,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.448276,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.448276,
        "median_excess_return": 0.012884,
        "regime_survival": 0.793103,
        "best_return": 1.785714,
        "worst_return": -0.5,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.108108,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.10181,
        "regime_survival": 0.545455,
        "best_return": 1.15,
        "worst_return": -0.5,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.141608,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.176746,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 1.071429,
        "worst_return": -0.266667,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.384615,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.387237,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.117647,
        "worst_return": -0.422222,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-12-06",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.148148,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.111111,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.708333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.162162,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
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        "return": 0.142857,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.428571,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 1162950.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1172645.0,
        "trend": 0.031867,
        "fair_value": 0.024308,
        "relative_strength": -50.22239,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.360492,
        "energy": 76.744623,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 0.018,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1142980.0,
        "trend": 0.0311,
        "fair_value": 0.024314,
        "relative_strength": -50.332908,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.069206,
        "energy": 80.845669,
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          0.018467,
          0.019218,
          0.022662,
          0.02626
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.017,
        "volume": 135000,
        "typical_volume": 1138510.0,
        "trend": 0.030267,
        "fair_value": 0.024314,
        "relative_strength": -53.401667,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.53898,
        "energy": 85.666055,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.017867,
          0.018673,
          0.021776,
          0.025351
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.016,
        "volume": 8000,
        "typical_volume": 1127660.0,
        "trend": 0.029333,
        "fair_value": 0.024308,
        "relative_strength": -56.075895,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -77.492564,
        "energy": 89.168537,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.017067,
          0.018036,
          0.0209,
          0.02443
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.016,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1103585.0,
        "trend": 0.028467,
        "fair_value": 0.024301,
        "relative_strength": -56.244001,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -75.609541,
        "energy": 89.033082,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.0166,
          0.017545,
          0.020129,
          0.02357
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}