{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33ed2d13-e543-408a-84e3-82611ff33307", "symbol": "TER", "name": "Teradyne, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.915, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.154, "architecture_energy": 16.466, "architecture_maturity": 38.278, "architecture_confidence": 89.292, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.32, "rotation_up": 22.01, "upward_expansion": 42.59, "deceleration": 84.79, "rotation_down": 33.43, "downward_expansion": 29.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 6301.321354, 6445.615838, 6457.395854, 6260.431524 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6535.0, "trend_reference": 5875.150505, "distance_from_trend": 0.112312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2868.997303, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.277799, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 40.782969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.396435, "excess_performance": 0.451102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112312, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215195, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.277799, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.40783, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268692, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.396435, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.560301, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235, "relative_activity": 0.287638, "balance": 0.560301, "dry_up": 0.846083, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09363, "annualized_volatility": 0.584912, "from_high_reference": -0.128667, "from_low_reference": 2.310998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5875.150505, "fair_value_reference": 2868.997303, "structural_low": 4679.773926, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036908, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.022582, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.289725, "worst_return": -0.042707, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.067175, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007555, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.592081, "worst_return": -0.071062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.365672, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.296677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.413606, "worst_return": -0.141682, "sufficient": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155892, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019223, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.199686, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", 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"energy": 23.035264, "activity_lines": [ 6252.709375, 6501.485298, 6435.854692, 6176.184011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6255.0, "volume": 404, "typical_volume": 821.55, "trend": 5787.311165, "fair_value": 2839.374142, "relative_strength": 37.171135, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.957124, "energy": 21.860679, "activity_lines": [ 6193.815365, 6448.659659, 6435.83983, 6212.193535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6535.0, "volume": 235, "typical_volume": 817.0, "trend": 5875.150505, "fair_value": 2868.997303, "relative_strength": 40.782969, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.153626, "energy": 16.466122, "activity_lines": [ 6301.321354, 6445.615838, 6457.395854, 6260.431524 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }