{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "33f1a622-adc3-45ce-9b94-5d74aceba62c",
    "symbol": "FXG",
    "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCH TRADED FUND 2 CONSUMER STAPLE ALPHADEX FD",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 61.718,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 25.535,
    "architecture_energy": 32.449,
    "architecture_maturity": 7.15,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.228,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 33.46,
        "rotation_up": 64.49,
        "upward_expansion": 50.58,
        "deceleration": 18.95,
        "rotation_down": 16.79,
        "downward_expansion": 18.58
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        64.56844,
        64.099612,
        63.35005,
        63.572251
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 64.9749,
    "trend_reference": 64.054083,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.014376,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 62.367028,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041815,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -8.461047,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.039684,
    "excess_performance": -0.165309,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014376,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.012534,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041815,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.051041,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08461,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049278,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.039684,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.127609,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 33294,
      "relative_activity": 0.468907,
      "balance": 2.127609,
      "dry_up": 0.686541,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.03172,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.159563,
      "from_high_reference": -0.060686,
      "from_low_reference": 0.094056
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 64.054083,
      "fair_value_reference": 62.367028,
      "structural_low": 59.644,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.002097,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015548,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.063132,
        "worst_return": -0.03431,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.01287,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.043032,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.090502,
        "worst_return": -0.015095,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.001838,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.090444,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.099658,
        "worst_return": -0.042993,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.05039,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.201126,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.06649,
        "worst_return": -0.044752,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.013891,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.080608,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.001505,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.021337,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.029392,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.014674,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052232,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041679,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.091935,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043807,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 130469.25,
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -6.997955,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "energy": 20.291278,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": -7.306799,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 62.269778,
        "relative_strength": -9.094189,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 58215,
        "typical_volume": 80307.5,
        "trend": 63.692807,
        "fair_value": 62.293831,
        "relative_strength": -6.420404,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 20.613522,
        "energy": 25.251224,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 64.18,
        "volume": 41076,
        "typical_volume": 74820.3,
        "trend": 63.804002,
        "fair_value": 62.314764,
        "relative_strength": -5.979353,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 16.944762,
        "energy": 23.892785,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 64.6199,
        "volume": 62402,
        "typical_volume": 72844.0,
        "trend": 63.935567,
        "fair_value": 62.340273,
        "relative_strength": -6.082469,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.259167,
        "energy": 23.537107,
        "activity_lines": [
          64.332967,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 64.9749,
        "volume": 33294,
        "typical_volume": 71003.45,
        "trend": 64.054083,
        "fair_value": 62.367028,
        "relative_strength": -8.461047,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 25.53506,
        "energy": 32.449302,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}