{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33f6196b-522d-45a2-883e-fc7ee892d9dd", "symbol": "332940", "name": "Nh-Amundi Hanaro Msci Korea Trust Etf", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.677, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.787, "architecture_energy": 30.196, "architecture_maturity": 63.966, "architecture_confidence": 77.56, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.3, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 43.11, "deceleration": 87.87, "rotation_down": 54.13, "downward_expansion": 39.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 46434.0, 50915.909091, 52002.285714, 49155.591398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43195.0, "trend_reference": 44858.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.03708, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21768.173077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.984319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.409434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.332357, "excess_performance": 0.102528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03708, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.984319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.780209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.074094, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051388, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.332357, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.596513, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17474, "relative_activity": 1.179755, "balance": 0.596513, "dry_up": 1.19395, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15243, "annualized_volatility": 0.54794, "from_high_reference": -0.367153, "from_low_reference": 1.464765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44858.333333, "fair_value_reference": 21768.173077, "structural_low": 31000.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.077068, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.012125, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.319628, "worst_return": -0.024093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.080711, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020964, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.392035, "worst_return": 0.007067, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.076466, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101624, "worst_return": 0.051308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.035042, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161315, "worst_return": -0.09123, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001109, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042654, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01006, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019066, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084069, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078159, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033945, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.230032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053142, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133029, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079292, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14075.0, "volume": 603, "typical_volume": 485.6, "trend": 14070.0, "fair_value": 14714.326923, "relative_strength": 2.205246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": 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54854.818182, 52736.357143, 49003.344086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47280.0, "volume": 15260, "typical_volume": 14667.6, "trend": 44395.0, "fair_value": 21584.358974, "relative_strength": 11.980678, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.528901, "energy": 24.402634, "activity_lines": [ 48997.333333, 53194.363636, 52591.761905, 49233.010753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43195.0, "volume": 17474, "typical_volume": 14811.55, "trend": 44858.333333, "fair_value": 21768.173077, "relative_strength": 7.409434, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.786854, "energy": 30.195546, "activity_lines": [ 46434.0, 50915.909091, 52002.285714, 49155.591398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }