{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33f71b73-bf6c-4498-99fd-cc9d14e70cb8", "symbol": "3150", "name": "MIRAE ASSET GBL INVMTS (HK) LTD- GLOBAL X JAPAN GLOBAL LEADERS ETF HKD", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.36, "architecture_energy": 50.55, "architecture_maturity": 18.135, "architecture_confidence": 86.627, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.59, "rotation_up": 61.34, "upward_expansion": 79.53, "deceleration": 51.35, "rotation_down": 16.81, "downward_expansion": 13.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.222667, 85.165091, 84.982476, 84.804947 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 88.980003, "trend_reference": 84.606667, "distance_from_trend": 0.05169, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.895887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.305141, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.05677, "excess_performance": 0.090351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05169, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026963, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273036, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03011, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.093051, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036549, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05677, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.893013, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.893013, "dry_up": 0.613821, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030396, "annualized_volatility": 0.229494, "from_high_reference": -0.016361, "from_low_reference": 0.202432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.606667, "fair_value_reference": 69.895887, "structural_low": 78.580002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.023398, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.077669, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.023398, "worst_return": 0.023398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044122, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036842, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.094325, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064938, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004651, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084329, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 53.619999, "volume": 16700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 53.139999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 54.119999, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"relative_strength": 6.69511, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.470967, "energy": 16.431611, "activity_lines": [ 83.470667, 83.900364, 84.263048, 84.304645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.059998, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": 14219.5, "trend": 84.288, "fair_value": 69.759572, "relative_strength": 6.345973, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.254883, "energy": 17.517181, "activity_lines": [ 84.693333, 84.36909, 84.544, 84.502237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.980003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13949.5, "trend": 84.606667, "fair_value": 69.895887, "relative_strength": 9.305141, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.359555, "energy": 50.549596, "activity_lines": [ 86.222667, 85.165091, 84.982476, 84.804947 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }