{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33fa80df-3832-4fb8-af48-c0111de8d36e", "symbol": "688683", "name": "GuangDong Leary New Material Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.385, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.022, "architecture_energy": 68.203, "architecture_maturity": 11.578, "architecture_confidence": 79.728, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.79, "rotation_up": 9.55, "upward_expansion": 14.83, "deceleration": 37.72, "rotation_down": 73.73, "downward_expansion": 90.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.950666, 31.973091, 35.393314, 36.137095 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.139999, "trend_reference": 36.511212, "distance_from_trend": -0.119722, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.078334, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.802082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.117033, "excess_performance": -0.073829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.119722, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021868, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281584, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.623781, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068021, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117033, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.959223, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10608564, "relative_activity": 1.194905, "balance": 0.959223, "dry_up": 1.479716, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172705, "annualized_volatility": 0.61468, "from_high_reference": -0.368463, "from_low_reference": 0.436746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.511212, "fair_value_reference": 25.078334, "structural_low": 22.370001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.03673, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.019811, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.27658, "worst_return": -0.135076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.136432, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.059264, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.376811, "worst_return": -0.193827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060091, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003842, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.36884, "worst_return": -0.222912, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 24.888081, "relative_strength": -2.911042, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.784237, "energy": 22.703315, "activity_lines": [ 36.009334, 37.594696, 38.667196, 38.095838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.440001, "volume": 15991769, "typical_volume": 8323021.25, "trend": 36.616545, "fair_value": 24.915939, "relative_strength": -19.585099, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.04002, "energy": 55.536414, "activity_lines": [ 32.489334, 35.254926, 37.525309, 37.430061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.200001, "volume": 14631039, "typical_volume": 8702224.95, "trend": 36.567878, "fair_value": 24.959344, "relative_strength": -15.352336, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.581326, "energy": 65.052712, "activity_lines": [ 30.353334, 33.583574, 36.612755, 36.887058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.299999, "volume": 11317258, "typical_volume": 8896401.1, "trend": 36.496545, "fair_value": 25.006236, "relative_strength": -12.52002, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.147629, "energy": 74.003016, "activity_lines": [ 29.438667, 32.390357, 35.84863, 36.418163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.139999, "volume": 10608564, "typical_volume": 8878162.2, "trend": 36.511212, "fair_value": 25.078334, "relative_strength": -6.802082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.022003, "energy": 68.203414, "activity_lines": [ 29.950666, 31.973091, 35.393314, 36.137095 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }