{ "ticker": { "uuid": "33fb7451-c959-4dcb-835e-71bc5df04a8f", "symbol": "CHOLAHLDNG", "name": "Cholamandalam Financial Holdings Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.803, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.695, "architecture_energy": 16.926, "architecture_maturity": 36.638, "architecture_confidence": 71.591, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.0, "rotation_up": 18.03, "upward_expansion": 13.81, "deceleration": 53.99, "rotation_down": 49.52, "downward_expansion": 65.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 1574.265591, 1587.960471, 1589.615759, 1584.569663 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1628.0, "trend_reference": 1594.507613, "distance_from_trend": 0.021005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1534.386295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061011, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.066365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013453, "excess_performance": 0.030256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021005, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059054, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061011, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145067, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061033, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1029099, "relative_activity": 0.929877, "balance": 0.783857, "dry_up": 0.972097, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063111, "annualized_volatility": 0.401201, "from_high_reference": -0.21124, "from_low_reference": 0.24751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1594.507613, "fair_value_reference": 1534.386295, "structural_low": 1305.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.008708, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.009735, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.387727, "worst_return": -0.086875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.057683, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.001694, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.518643, "worst_return": -0.252583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033695, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005312, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.625291, "worst_return": -0.244945, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04955, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057555, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02555, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064994, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0689, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147443, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036584, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097504, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018094, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 901.358154, "volume": 315524, "typical_volume": 729791.85, "trend": 736.266445, "fair_value": 629.239578, "relative_strength": 24.186897, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.888505, "energy": 18.108686, "activity_lines": [ 1639.766813, 1608.832435, 1592.604986, 1598.778086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1572.358765, "volume": 938760, "typical_volume": 1111561.2, "trend": 1623.687838, "fair_value": 1522.223483, "relative_strength": -7.421588, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.117058, "energy": 12.338403, "activity_lines": [ 1624.894645, 1601.025368, 1592.389743, 1594.917628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1515.50354, "volume": 699627, "typical_volume": 1108308.55, "trend": 1612.257955, "fair_value": 1525.983262, "relative_strength": -8.223745, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.818162, "energy": 14.918004, "activity_lines": [ 1587.860148, 1586.66901, 1587.053722, 1587.937995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1532.989742, "volume": 1635809, "typical_volume": 1138815.25, "trend": 1600.940946, "fair_value": 1529.841677, "relative_strength": -9.220191, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.460682, "energy": 21.624671, "activity_lines": [ 1561.214151, 1578.082805, 1583.760656, 1582.823917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1628.0, "volume": 1029099, "typical_volume": 1106704.45, "trend": 1594.507613, "fair_value": 1534.386295, "relative_strength": -4.066365, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.694854, "energy": 16.92619, "activity_lines": [ 1574.265591, 1587.960471, 1589.615759, 1584.569663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }