{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3400a86d-c1fe-4836-b5a5-0e5b90851e9e", "symbol": "FEM", "name": "FIRST TRUST EMERGING MARKETS ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.108, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.404, "architecture_energy": 12.681, "architecture_maturity": 30.528, "architecture_confidence": 82.099, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.55, "rotation_up": 29.64, "upward_expansion": 44.33, "deceleration": 72.82, "rotation_down": 31.51, "downward_expansion": 33.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.40076, 31.462626, 31.746447, 31.537951 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 32.21, "trend_reference": 31.131984, "distance_from_trend": 0.034627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.215594, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330135, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.460941, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.078852, "excess_performance": -0.108602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034627, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048798, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105225, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.854708, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 573475, "relative_activity": 0.884595, "balance": 1.854708, "dry_up": 0.821495, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05017, "annualized_volatility": 0.205816, "from_high_reference": -0.089965, "from_low_reference": 0.277422 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.131984, "fair_value_reference": 24.215594, "structural_low": 28.642211, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.012185, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.007279, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.119695, "worst_return": -0.047437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004717, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.038926, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.100041, "worst_return": -0.032887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.029529, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.088868, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.238469, "worst_return": -0.050617, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139359, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", 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481110, "typical_volume": 655051.35, "trend": 30.798237, "fair_value": 24.00537, "relative_strength": -3.867528, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.955414, "energy": 8.930655, "activity_lines": [ 31.450755, 31.646068, 31.800929, 31.453284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.0411, "volume": 481020, "typical_volume": 646624.4, "trend": 30.912771, "fair_value": 24.068516, "relative_strength": -1.646421, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.517783, "energy": 10.882394, "activity_lines": [ 31.25864, 31.510055, 31.760488, 31.468952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.7848, "volume": 594668, "typical_volume": 649228.5, "trend": 31.012558, "fair_value": 24.136262, "relative_strength": -3.021978, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.784351, "energy": 12.806924, "activity_lines": [ 31.073327, 31.341934, 31.688616, 31.460696 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.21, "volume": 573475, "typical_volume": 648291.25, "trend": 31.131984, "fair_value": 24.215594, "relative_strength": -3.460941, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.403626, "energy": 12.680654, "activity_lines": [ 31.40076, 31.462626, 31.746447, 31.537951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }