{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3419db25-39d7-4f25-905b-f46def9d55f7", "symbol": "CTOR", "name": "Citius Oncology, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.814, "architecture_energy": 33.501, "architecture_maturity": 98.098, "architecture_confidence": 78.712, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.9, "rotation_up": 22.47, "upward_expansion": 3.92, "deceleration": 57.84, "rotation_down": 42.36, "downward_expansion": 72.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.659307, 0.660467, 0.716396, 0.757522 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.753, "trend_reference": 0.838157, "distance_from_trend": -0.1016, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.717908, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.840395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.296727, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.333628, "excess_performance": -0.521082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1016, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.840395, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.432967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070103, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333628, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.160111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1430336, "relative_activity": 2.789124, "balance": 1.160111, "dry_up": 1.117117, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.181526, "annualized_volatility": 1.017249, "from_high_reference": -0.665333, "from_low_reference": 0.53298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.838157, "fair_value_reference": 4.717908, "structural_low": 0.4912, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.013274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.003881, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.365107, "worst_return": -0.445603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.186441, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.282823, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.002725, "worst_return": -0.347222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.417518, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.568272, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.60218, "worst_return": -0.468927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239782, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.633333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.250951, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.150485, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.691, "volume": 352031, "typical_volume": 829268.25, "trend": 0.907943, "fair_value": 4.974149, "relative_strength": -52.793172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.340404, "energy": 59.677143, "activity_lines": [ 0.669333, 0.711102, 0.758473, 0.816306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.6889, "volume": 87422, "typical_volume": 804660.4, "trend": 0.884573, "fair_value": 4.910424, "relative_strength": -50.063178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.282767, "energy": 47.644198, "activity_lines": [ 0.677293, 0.697936, 0.748852, 0.802174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5622, "volume": 628488, "typical_volume": 563614.35, "trend": 0.865647, "fair_value": 4.845887, "relative_strength": -57.486232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.828664, "energy": 50.910672, "activity_lines": [ 0.64136, 0.665696, 0.729218, 0.781376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5923, "volume": 145301, "typical_volume": 496098.45, "trend": 0.84939, "fair_value": 4.781478, "relative_strength": -54.144409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.67019, "energy": 49.955487, "activity_lines": [ 0.622627, 0.646222, 0.71463, 0.763741 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.753, "volume": 1430336, "typical_volume": 512826.2, "trend": 0.838157, "fair_value": 4.717908, "relative_strength": -43.296727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.814016, "energy": 33.500904, "activity_lines": [ 0.659307, 0.660467, 0.716396, 0.757522 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }