{ "ticker": { "uuid": "341cd9c5-1c3d-4f01-9558-756120d81229", "symbol": "EURCHA", "name": "UBS Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 82.642, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.081, "architecture_energy": 80.269, "architecture_maturity": 28.435, "architecture_confidence": 81.513, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.86, "rotation_up": 65.29, "upward_expansion": 90.84, "deceleration": 48.45, "rotation_down": 21.44, "downward_expansion": 17.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.3782, 5.343818, 5.252993, 5.179714 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.451, "trend_reference": 5.106867, "distance_from_trend": 0.067386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.757774, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.377582, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.385342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081333, "excess_performance": -0.00155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067386, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033932, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.377582, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098825, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003853, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02486, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.823565, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 189956, "relative_activity": 0.627418, "balance": 0.823565, "dry_up": 1.102316, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016871, "annualized_volatility": 0.143156, "from_high_reference": -0.005655, "from_low_reference": 0.211064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.106867, "fair_value_reference": 8.757774, "structural_low": 4.5685, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.012937, "positive_rate": 0.65625, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": 0.003179, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.071221, "worst_return": -0.058464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014528, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.014333, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.087385, "worst_return": -0.032973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059166, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.019125, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116656, "worst_return": -0.116045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020258, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142383, "worst_return": -0.730707, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011206, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020801, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025933, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031393, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023502, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072941, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013697, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.077161, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060919, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.8, "volume": 28645, "typical_volume": 8805.4, "trend": 15.1984, "fair_value": 14.06741, "relative_strength": 3.199897, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"trend": 5.06, "fair_value": 8.949024, "relative_strength": -2.112716, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.459676, "energy": 76.858085, "activity_lines": [ 5.3086, 5.268427, 5.170883, 5.119135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.323, "volume": 200058, "typical_volume": 346053.95, "trend": 5.0756, "fair_value": 8.883107, "relative_strength": -1.302416, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.299866, "energy": 72.669956, "activity_lines": [ 5.314933, 5.286945, 5.194131, 5.136103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.393, "volume": 170462, "typical_volume": 324913.5, "trend": 5.092433, "fair_value": 8.82078, "relative_strength": -0.110375, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.042384, "energy": 65.519098, "activity_lines": [ 5.341, 5.312309, 5.22204, 5.156581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.451, "volume": 189956, "typical_volume": 302758.35, "trend": 5.106867, "fair_value": 8.757774, "relative_strength": -0.385342, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.080759, "energy": 80.268774, "activity_lines": [ 5.3782, 5.343818, 5.252993, 5.179714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }