{ "ticker": { "uuid": "341d2705-f8f4-4ac6-b8f5-14b1eabac37f", "symbol": "RVNL", "name": "Rail Vikas Nigam Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.122, "architecture_energy": 72.846, "architecture_maturity": 65.945, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 26.0, "upward_expansion": 16.56, "deceleration": 41.89, "rotation_down": 59.59, "downward_expansion": 92.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 228.397334, 231.087456, 244.946286, 256.131134 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 233.380005, "trend_reference": 273.74216, "distance_from_trend": -0.147446, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 328.231712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.891795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254655, "excess_performance": -0.210946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147446, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105221, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.208918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154852, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.254655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.239501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26802166, "relative_activity": 0.958224, "balance": 0.239501, "dry_up": 0.81769, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05536, "annualized_volatility": 0.310907, "from_high_reference": -0.41574, "from_low_reference": 0.060047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 273.74216, "fair_value_reference": 328.231712, "structural_low": 220.160004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.000679, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.038015, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.326679, "worst_return": -0.227508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016523, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0364, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.173985, "worst_return": -0.165955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.032957, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.06115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.106168, "worst_return": -0.098442, 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"close": 225.479996, "volume": 24913235, "typical_volume": 28038854.05, "trend": 277.001496, "fair_value": 327.532454, "relative_strength": -23.498284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.521131, "energy": 82.229139, "activity_lines": [ 226.863332, 231.255637, 247.341334, 258.945424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 233.380005, "volume": 26802166, "typical_volume": 27970674.9, "trend": 273.74216, "fair_value": 328.231712, "relative_strength": -20.891795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.122184, "energy": 72.84647, "activity_lines": [ 228.397334, 231.087456, 244.946286, 256.131134 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }