{ "ticker": { "uuid": "341ff11f-8a36-4131-9be9-994e2b285c99", "symbol": "FSCC", "name": "FEDERATED HERMES MDT SMALL CAP CORE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.832, "architecture_energy": 33.073, "architecture_maturity": 52.431, "architecture_confidence": 88.34, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.43, "rotation_up": 35.47, "upward_expansion": 63.84, "deceleration": 87.87, "rotation_down": 26.76, "downward_expansion": 16.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.666667, 35.771136, 35.185156, 34.230101 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.2, "trend_reference": 33.16217, "distance_from_trend": 0.091605, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.492344, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270517, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.178205, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.128781, "excess_performance": 0.003156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091605, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.270517, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017412, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021782, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028969, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.66629, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 462856, "relative_activity": 1.688265, "balance": 1.66629, "dry_up": 0.933972, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040903, "annualized_volatility": 0.164081, "from_high_reference": -0.035181, "from_low_reference": 0.358443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.16217, "fair_value_reference": 28.492344, "structural_low": 28.46, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035181, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", 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33.706129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.25, "volume": 236386, "typical_volume": 257703.15, "trend": 32.834837, "fair_value": 28.353831, "relative_strength": 4.540416, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.955086, "energy": 44.549675, "activity_lines": [ 35.766667, 35.70234, 34.811601, 33.871865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.19, "volume": 120531, "typical_volume": 254726.85, "trend": 33.002503, "fair_value": 28.418937, "relative_strength": 3.008461, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.625085, "energy": 32.39946, "activity_lines": [ 35.504667, 35.650793, 34.963807, 34.023811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.2, "volume": 462856, "typical_volume": 274160.75, "trend": 33.16217, "fair_value": 28.492344, "relative_strength": 2.178205, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.831947, "energy": 33.072722, "activity_lines": [ 35.666667, 35.771136, 35.185156, 34.230101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }