{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3422e86e-db72-4301-bd2a-ec5a021528c1", "symbol": "BDX", "name": "Becton, Dickinson and Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.778, "architecture_energy": 69.057, "architecture_maturity": 13.7, "architecture_confidence": 65.509, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.41, "rotation_up": 77.85, "upward_expansion": 58.19, "deceleration": 16.06, "rotation_down": 14.2, "downward_expansion": 28.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 143.479999, 139.356364, 134.480276, 134.925224 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 152.149994, "trend_reference": 138.791691, "distance_from_trend": 0.096247, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 184.140697, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17373, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.451241, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.182497, "excess_performance": 0.008251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096247, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173776, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135012, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.182497, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.72549, "dry_up": 2.357414, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042665, "annualized_volatility": 0.322138, "from_high_reference": -0.148305, "from_low_reference": 0.262805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 138.791691, "fair_value_reference": 184.140697, "structural_low": 120.485742, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031438, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.001874, "worst_return": -0.064284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001358, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024536, "worst_return": -0.045201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02906, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013827, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105437, "worst_return": -0.076422, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01069, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027642, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009569, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09085, "active": 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"fair_value": 185.954724, "relative_strength": -23.131358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.454462, "energy": 27.305215, "activity_lines": [ 135.913337, 132.763561, 130.987234, 134.232315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.149994, "volume": 63, "typical_volume": 23.1, "trend": 140.234375, "fair_value": 185.288852, "relative_strength": -24.510891, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.926358, "energy": 23.479566, "activity_lines": [ 136.84, 134.02695, 131.494835, 133.974619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 142.300003, "volume": 64, "typical_volume": 26.3, "trend": 139.481232, "fair_value": 184.707393, "relative_strength": -21.086148, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 18.817949, "energy": 31.837369, "activity_lines": [ 138.700001, 135.953479, 132.523627, 134.107885 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.149994, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 26.3, "trend": 138.791691, "fair_value": 184.140697, "relative_strength": -17.451241, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.77797, "energy": 69.057093, "activity_lines": [ 143.479999, 139.356364, 134.480276, 134.925224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }