{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3429fac7-b2e7-4b75-a82f-ca23533e7c67", "symbol": "KASET", "name": "Thai Ha Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.465, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.317, "architecture_energy": 31.946, "architecture_maturity": 29.581, "architecture_confidence": 66.568, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.38, "rotation_up": 26.56, "upward_expansion": 12.7, "deceleration": 50.16, "rotation_down": 51.09, "downward_expansion": 54.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.67, 0.675636, 0.70181, 0.706452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.65, "trend_reference": 0.693667, "distance_from_trend": -0.062951, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.902308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.279625, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.162335, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065574, "excess_performance": -0.126751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062951, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047835, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.279625, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065574, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253674, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3017600, "relative_activity": 0.306756, "balance": 0.253674, "dry_up": 0.355276, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087574, "annualized_volatility": 0.748339, "from_high_reference": -0.386792, "from_low_reference": 0.444444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.693667, "fair_value_reference": 0.902308, "structural_low": 0.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.021328, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053479, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.014085, "worst_return": -0.028571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094203, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108911, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.336957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.180328, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.164179, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084507, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.43, "volume": 1768700, "typical_volume": 1065665.0, "trend": 1.451, "fair_value": 1.626218, "relative_strength": -4.620793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.194222, "energy": 22.476971, "activity_lines": [ 1.356, 1.289091, 1.327667, 1.379097 ] }, { 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0.684, 0.697636, 0.727429, 0.710086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.68, "volume": 1514600, "typical_volume": 11416155.0, "trend": 0.682333, "fair_value": 0.917949, "relative_strength": -11.861928, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.076642, "energy": 16.358007, "activity_lines": [ 0.682667, 0.690182, 0.723429, 0.709978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.68, "volume": 7296700, "typical_volume": 11666375.0, "trend": 0.684333, "fair_value": 0.914744, "relative_strength": -12.51107, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.624372, "energy": 19.735557, "activity_lines": [ 0.682667, 0.685455, 0.719333, 0.709828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.68, "volume": 2775200, "typical_volume": 11628830.0, "trend": 0.687667, "fair_value": 0.911026, "relative_strength": -12.389948, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.561169, "energy": 23.934294, "activity_lines": [ 0.680667, 0.683455, 0.714905, 0.709548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.68, "volume": 890100, "typical_volume": 11598975.0, "trend": 0.690333, "fair_value": 0.907244, "relative_strength": -11.102837, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.867702, "energy": 19.449857, "activity_lines": [ 0.68, 0.682, 0.710048, 0.709054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.65, "volume": 3017600, "typical_volume": 9837150.0, "trend": 0.693667, "fair_value": 0.902308, "relative_strength": -14.162335, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.317416, "energy": 31.945837, "activity_lines": [ 0.67, 0.675636, 0.70181, 0.706452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }