{ "ticker": { "uuid": "342a5e00-7752-4a09-bdc0-bdacecc440b2", "symbol": "UST10F", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 10+ UCITS ETF hEUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.445, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.918, "architecture_energy": 77.117, "architecture_maturity": 40.342, "architecture_confidence": 79.899, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.28, "rotation_up": 8.65, "upward_expansion": 17.44, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 80.41, "downward_expansion": 95.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.809867, 5.868891, 5.904452, 5.933119 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.798, "trend_reference": 5.972829, "distance_from_trend": -0.029271, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.002184, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034018, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.528312, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036365, "excess_performance": -0.207257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029271, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008303, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034018, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022239, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04937, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036365, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.977003, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25805, "relative_activity": 1.537407, "balance": 0.977003, "dry_up": 0.959993, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015244, "annualized_volatility": 0.086862, "from_high_reference": -0.070322, "from_low_reference": 0.010457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.972829, "fair_value_reference": 6.002184, "structural_low": 5.738, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.008937, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.008269, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.075915, "worst_return": -0.090448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005841, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.064216, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.130888, "worst_return": -0.17808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027553, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.111944, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031722, "worst_return": -0.191271, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 26.067271, "activity_lines": [ 5.939, 5.944818, 5.949571, 5.97154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.832, "volume": 7016, "typical_volume": 16195.25, "trend": 5.989024, "fair_value": 6.00685, "relative_strength": -14.896021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.235223, "energy": 60.976866, "activity_lines": [ 5.896533, 5.925509, 5.937376, 5.961033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.739, "volume": 9785, "typical_volume": 16238.55, "trend": 5.980643, "fair_value": 6.004209, "relative_strength": -16.373386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.271174, "energy": 80.24987, "activity_lines": [ 5.832667, 5.890873, 5.917562, 5.944903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.798, "volume": 25805, "typical_volume": 16784.75, "trend": 5.972829, "fair_value": 6.002184, "relative_strength": -17.528312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.918043, "energy": 77.116863, "activity_lines": [ 5.809867, 5.868891, 5.904452, 5.933119 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }