{ "ticker": { "uuid": "343069a3-7861-4250-a45f-0b24554d19b8", "symbol": "DWX", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.08, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.78, "architecture_energy": 81.517, "architecture_maturity": 9.418, "architecture_confidence": 66.096, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.34, "rotation_up": 83.22, "upward_expansion": 95.54, "deceleration": 39.04, "rotation_down": 8.79, "downward_expansion": 17.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.720933, 47.176377, 46.693101, 46.491055 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 48.2311, "trend_reference": 46.254714, "distance_from_trend": 0.042728, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.60252, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282656, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.694861, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034412, "excess_performance": -0.091212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042728, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027612, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282656, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036949, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012742, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.781137, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117646, "relative_activity": 1.398288, "balance": 3.781137, "dry_up": 0.951242, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018083, "annualized_volatility": 0.140799, "from_high_reference": -0.007737, "from_low_reference": 0.172989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.254714, "fair_value_reference": 37.60252, "structural_low": 44.178391, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.002979, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.010095, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.059809, "worst_return": -0.052264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005301, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.065057, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.139232, "worst_return": -0.089059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039211, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.071762, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.097689, "worst_return": -0.017805, "sufficient": true }, 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"direction": 71.047168, "energy": 57.878294, "activity_lines": [ 46.751936, 46.442067, 46.216664, 46.151774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.105, "volume": 81759, "typical_volume": 85891.75, "trend": 45.978807, "fair_value": 37.379813, "relative_strength": -1.708311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.92471, "energy": 63.760759, "activity_lines": [ 46.961247, 46.597347, 46.324087, 46.231689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.8814, "volume": 67366, "typical_volume": 82909.35, "trend": 46.11352, "fair_value": 37.490118, "relative_strength": -1.123414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.151214, "energy": 75.277207, "activity_lines": [ 47.347187, 46.87102, 46.49891, 46.354437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.2311, "volume": 117646, "typical_volume": 84135.75, "trend": 46.254714, "fair_value": 37.60252, "relative_strength": -3.694861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.779581, "energy": 81.517494, "activity_lines": [ 47.720933, 47.176377, 46.693101, 46.491055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }