{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3430abb1-d9fa-4999-8f44-4e5373c11247", "symbol": "XM1D", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.42, "architecture_energy": 35.962, "architecture_maturity": 58.852, "architecture_confidence": 85.511, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.46, "rotation_up": 39.72, "upward_expansion": 66.24, "deceleration": 85.45, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 16.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.942399, 68.014981, 66.996437, 65.779575 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 69.706001, "trend_reference": 64.335365, "distance_from_trend": 0.083479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.592317, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325403, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.733183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112678, "excess_performance": 0.048038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083479, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058159, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041975, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057332, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112678, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.06061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17147, "relative_activity": 0.660987, "balance": 2.06061, "dry_up": 0.673689, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030479, "annualized_volatility": 0.191521, "from_high_reference": -0.002376, "from_low_reference": 0.315379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.335365, "fair_value_reference": 52.592317, "structural_low": 57.990172, "invalidation": "A 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000522, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026773, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053394, "active": 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52.417014, "relative_strength": 4.64472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.953447, "energy": 28.325741, "activity_lines": [ 67.253332, 67.622981, 66.551583, 65.412329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.706001, "volume": 17147, "typical_volume": 25941.5, "trend": 64.335365, "fair_value": 52.592317, "relative_strength": 5.733183, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.420434, "energy": 35.961919, "activity_lines": [ 67.942399, 68.014981, 66.996437, 65.779575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }