{ "ticker": { "uuid": "343e95a0-b7ee-4607-838a-717272919e63", "symbol": "UEFI", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 1-10 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.208, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.506, "architecture_energy": 47.442, "architecture_maturity": 52.173, "architecture_confidence": 44.156, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.45, "rotation_up": 48.87, "upward_expansion": 68.97, "deceleration": 65.41, "rotation_down": 23.73, "downward_expansion": 18.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.651401, 33.653473, 33.467357, 33.38294 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.471001, "trend_reference": 33.234493, "distance_from_trend": 0.007116, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.114307, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010772, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.748062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02639, "excess_performance": -0.090272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007116, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00608, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013482, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038181, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02639, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.797922, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.00485, "balance": 0.797922, "dry_up": 0.829292, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005205, "annualized_volatility": 0.057322, "from_high_reference": -0.014428, "from_low_reference": 0.042781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.234493, "fair_value_reference": 33.114307, "structural_low": 32.419998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.004631, "positive_rate": 0.291667, "directional_follow_through": 0.291667, "median_excess_return": -0.003531, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.020394, "worst_return": -0.052357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.014474, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.050403, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.019019, "worst_return": -0.067866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003916, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091947, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.037691, "worst_return": -0.092161, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.470712, "energy": 88.5464, "activity_lines": [ 33.696333, 33.465818, 33.343162, 33.252862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.706001, "volume": 278, "typical_volume": 313.2, "trend": 33.148072, "fair_value": 33.079898, "relative_strength": -8.386936, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.141281, "energy": 88.462017, "activity_lines": [ 33.732134, 33.539618, 33.381309, 33.291022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.715, "volume": 403, "typical_volume": 212.25, "trend": 33.18509, "fair_value": 33.090818, "relative_strength": -7.966815, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.956383, "energy": 87.791863, "activity_lines": [ 33.740734, 33.601236, 33.416695, 33.327598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.790001, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 207.65, "trend": 33.21811, "fair_value": 33.10386, "relative_strength": -8.203131, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.891273, "energy": 74.427717, "activity_lines": [ 33.743534, 33.663218, 33.457976, 33.366625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.471001, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 206.2, "trend": 33.234493, "fair_value": 33.114307, "relative_strength": -9.748062, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.505647, "energy": 47.441598, "activity_lines": [ 33.651401, 33.653473, 33.467357, 33.38294 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }