{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3441c856-bd64-4921-81a8-b071222b459f", "symbol": "AFRM", "name": "Affirm Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.445, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.036, "architecture_energy": 21.893, "architecture_maturity": 64.741, "architecture_confidence": 80.82, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.3, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 58.49, "deceleration": 88.02, "rotation_down": 27.52, "downward_expansion": 19.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.902667, 75.445636, 72.155714, 67.523032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 75.25, "trend_reference": 63.329, "distance_from_trend": 0.188239, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.594199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.458497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.117499, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.319481, "excess_performance": 0.132027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.188239, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.458497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.319481, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.553268, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13693466, "relative_activity": 0.624553, "balance": 1.553268, "dry_up": 0.769954, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119101, "annualized_volatility": 0.666512, "from_high_reference": -0.2475, "from_low_reference": 0.787623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.329, "fair_value_reference": 51.594199, "structural_low": 42.095, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.032983, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.029323, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.773699, "worst_return": -0.379353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025013, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.310959, "worst_return": -0.274013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069031, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.549725, "worst_return": -0.371617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.545753, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.290215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.802318, "worst_return": 0.289188, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.391447, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.241867, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.373147, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.258824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014252, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071224, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009573, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.251771, "active": false }, { "regime": 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50.857596, "relative_strength": -6.08309, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.151414, "energy": 49.23207, "activity_lines": [ 76.956, 75.653091, 70.581667, 66.25972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.51, "volume": 15728802, "typical_volume": 22947367.25, "trend": 63.547333, "fair_value": 51.209006, "relative_strength": -4.618738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.018225, "energy": 30.51747, "activity_lines": [ 74.54, 75.266545, 71.249238, 66.768022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.25, "volume": 13693466, "typical_volume": 21925221.7, "trend": 63.329, "fair_value": 51.594199, "relative_strength": -4.117499, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.035693, "energy": 21.893243, "activity_lines": [ 73.902667, 75.445636, 72.155714, 67.523032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }