{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34499afb-de92-490d-8638-6cf87faefe9f", "symbol": "301209", "name": "Longkou Union Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.638, "architecture_energy": 67.05, "architecture_maturity": 74.477, "architecture_confidence": 85.504, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.79, "rotation_up": 17.06, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.88, "rotation_down": 71.21, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.685333, 48.270597, 54.409563, 61.868955 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 49.48, "trend_reference": 73.314052, "distance_from_trend": -0.325095, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.831759, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.001463, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.503711, "excess_performance": -0.511111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.325095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.401947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.440015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01184, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.503711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.443904, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13899755, "relative_activity": 1.906321, "balance": 0.443904, "dry_up": 1.720894, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133436, "annualized_volatility": 0.595981, "from_high_reference": -0.627578, "from_low_reference": 0.31771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.314052, "fair_value_reference": 46.831759, "structural_low": 37.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010542, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046369, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.229268, "worst_return": -0.232563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.041097, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037489, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.159359, "worst_return": -0.241553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.205416, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.193288, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205416, "worst_return": 0.205416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 10196627, "typical_volume": 5976070.8, "trend": 79.558719, "fair_value": 46.324891, "relative_strength": -50.360365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.078196, "energy": 95.01296, "activity_lines": [ 49.991334, 54.613954, 60.418157, 68.382406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.599998, "volume": 14150992, "typical_volume": 6452126.25, "trend": 77.552052, "fair_value": 46.487778, "relative_strength": -51.572818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.666443, "energy": 93.754672, "activity_lines": [ 46.538666, 51.867234, 58.048864, 65.997972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.5, "volume": 11943555, "typical_volume": 6815607.85, "trend": 75.427719, "fair_value": 46.626717, "relative_strength": -53.620648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.227316, "energy": 93.724381, "activity_lines": [ 43.286, 48.937944, 55.630999, 63.543001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.48, "volume": 13899755, "typical_volume": 7291404.05, "trend": 73.314052, "fair_value": 46.831759, "relative_strength": -44.001463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.637829, "energy": 67.050473, "activity_lines": [ 44.685333, 48.270597, 54.409563, 61.868955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }