{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34518908-ef63-4f5e-bc89-2868b7f83aa9", "symbol": "FNDC", "name": "SCHWAB FUNDAMENTAL INTERNATIONAL SMALL EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.711, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.801, "architecture_energy": 45.57, "architecture_maturity": 10.071, "architecture_confidence": 72.846, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.95, "rotation_up": 51.4, "upward_expansion": 76.14, "deceleration": 55.41, "rotation_down": 21.87, "downward_expansion": 12.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.575, 49.229339, 49.179344, 48.873044 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 51.0, "trend_reference": 48.53031, "distance_from_trend": 0.05089, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.86794, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346786, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.786016, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054373, "excess_performance": -0.071252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05089, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040635, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01786, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036342, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054373, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.452744, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 344821, "relative_activity": 0.426412, "balance": 0.452744, "dry_up": 0.477658, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02714, "annualized_volatility": 0.188388, "from_high_reference": -0.002347, "from_low_reference": 0.228436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.53031, "fair_value_reference": 37.86794, "structural_low": 44.65, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006391, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.039825, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.075225, "worst_return": -0.072074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015825, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153142, "worst_return": -0.005957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073613, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.089496, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.210922, "worst_return": -0.077566, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000585, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081761, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047424, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148067, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", 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48.094144, "fair_value": 37.510238, "relative_strength": -2.843762, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.468985, "energy": 14.098024, "activity_lines": [ 48.711608, 48.881688, 48.847501, 48.603975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.625, "volume": 355369, "typical_volume": 862431.15, "trend": 48.218977, "fair_value": 37.619955, "relative_strength": -2.03098, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.963156, "energy": 8.090421, "activity_lines": [ 48.651667, 48.81074, 48.874337, 48.638223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.22, "volume": 390942, "typical_volume": 837899.8, "trend": 48.36131, "fair_value": 37.738213, "relative_strength": -1.90635, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.761252, "energy": 9.476906, "activity_lines": [ 48.847333, 48.855278, 48.950531, 48.702806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.0, "volume": 344821, "typical_volume": 808657.3, "trend": 48.53031, "fair_value": 37.86794, "relative_strength": -1.786016, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.800852, "energy": 45.569536, "activity_lines": [ 49.575, 49.229339, 49.179344, 48.873044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }