{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34553ea1-77e6-4d2f-b3a9-dc36050b6cec", "symbol": "LDO", "name": "Leonardo S.p.a.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.429, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.279, "architecture_energy": 16.145, "architecture_maturity": 15.855, "architecture_confidence": 69.648, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.59, "rotation_up": 39.49, "upward_expansion": 28.18, "deceleration": 41.69, "rotation_down": 17.75, "downward_expansion": 47.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.593334, 53.039636, 52.641213, 53.647535 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 58.040001, "trend_reference": 54.860697, "distance_from_trend": 0.057952, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.122955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.652481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.941048, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090977, "excess_performance": -0.079914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057952, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015258, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.652481, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004519, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05941, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050267, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090977, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.32843, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14552303, "relative_activity": 1.359893, "balance": 1.32843, "dry_up": 1.073913, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073128, "annualized_volatility": 0.466368, "from_high_reference": -0.124057, "from_low_reference": 0.345075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.860697, "fair_value_reference": 35.122955, "structural_low": 44.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.050482, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": 0.021366, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.229743, "worst_return": -0.026167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.287817, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.194573, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.593882, "worst_return": -0.103867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.305976, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.115146, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.119725, "worst_return": -0.062869, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.851246, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045917, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008792, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062031, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.530064, "volume": 7635319, "typical_volume": 13264937.75, "trend": 10.625501, "fair_value": 7.609696, "relative_strength": 25.193425, "stage": 2, "regime": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.987291, "energy": 38.671558, "activity_lines": [ 50.711997, 51.153094, 52.970282, 54.027867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.82, "volume": 13935040, "typical_volume": 11882038.2, "trend": 54.616364, "fair_value": 34.05009, "relative_strength": -14.995098, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.201347, "energy": 36.724541, "activity_lines": [ 50.992346, 51.235433, 52.678659, 53.855285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.75, "volume": 9386306, "typical_volume": 11614609.5, "trend": 54.667364, "fair_value": 34.303322, "relative_strength": -15.237662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.661594, "energy": 35.093024, "activity_lines": [ 50.877333, 51.133511, 52.31894, 53.605842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.259998, "volume": 9202959, "typical_volume": 11145550.3, "trend": 54.76103, "fair_value": 34.563948, "relative_strength": -12.34869, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.369718, "energy": 18.313345, "activity_lines": [ 51.404999, 51.338389, 52.131841, 53.450528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.650002, "volume": 12826463, "typical_volume": 10665591.1, "trend": 54.875364, "fair_value": 34.833447, "relative_strength": -8.830585, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.175584, "energy": 13.807009, "activity_lines": [ 52.714, 51.907703, 52.202646, 53.443365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.040001, "volume": 14552303, "typical_volume": 10701063.85, "trend": 54.860697, "fair_value": 35.122955, "relative_strength": -5.941048, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.279197, "energy": 16.14483, "activity_lines": [ 54.593334, 53.039636, 52.641213, 53.647535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }