{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3455dcf0-9975-48af-9572-9eeec979d45e", "symbol": "ASME", "name": "ASML Holding N.V.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.11, "architecture_energy": 21.925, "architecture_maturity": 68.684, "architecture_confidence": 89.827, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.75, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 56.64, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 27.62, "downward_expansion": 20.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 1505.625199, 1541.667497, 1487.895424, 1419.324988 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1498.800049, "trend_reference": 1336.960802, "distance_from_trend": 0.12105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 846.578349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.770421, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.56479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.260578, "excess_performance": 0.195938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.770421, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063931, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.235648, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202104, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.260578, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526925, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25906, "relative_activity": 1.067439, "balance": 0.526925, "dry_up": 1.661389, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083971, "annualized_volatility": 0.349508, "from_high_reference": -0.105514, "from_low_reference": 1.462064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1336.960802, "fair_value_reference": 846.578349, "structural_low": 1077.823349, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.066033, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.019536, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.159333, "worst_return": -0.08866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045206, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030798, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.376769, "worst_return": -0.139017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001936, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.227225, "worst_return": -0.222489, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.783249, "energy": 78.483898, "activity_lines": [ 1603.974878, 1553.132655, 1434.911506, 1364.091903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1534.753418, "volume": 46582, "typical_volume": 22691.5, "trend": 1285.629541, "fair_value": 829.473542, "relative_strength": 39.951089, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.646146, "energy": 55.076733, "activity_lines": [ 1577.449048, 1560.31592, 1453.003501, 1381.533749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1562.52002, "volume": 20410, "typical_volume": 21973.5, "trend": 1307.733325, "fair_value": 835.412824, "relative_strength": 38.698788, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.311728, "energy": 45.164307, "activity_lines": [ 1566.528524, 1568.639416, 1472.272039, 1399.397651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1440.8, "volume": 68385, "typical_volume": 23873.4, "trend": 1322.993004, "fair_value": 840.76118, "relative_strength": 23.609386, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.659975, "energy": 28.13516, "activity_lines": [ 1521.959994, 1550.171633, 1477.952759, 1407.982598 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1498.800049, "volume": 25906, "typical_volume": 24269.3, "trend": 1336.960802, "fair_value": 846.578349, "relative_strength": 23.56479, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.110447, "energy": 21.925017, "activity_lines": [ 1505.625199, 1541.667497, 1487.895424, 1419.324988 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }