{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3455e1a3-b8e8-49a2-bd6e-82b468b821f3", "symbol": "002352", "name": "S.F. Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.093, "architecture_energy": 22.904, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.998, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.24, "rotation_up": 33.14, "upward_expansion": 22.18, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 20.1, "downward_expansion": 53.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.676667, 33.154728, 33.856813, 34.618523 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.299999, "trend_reference": 35.663092, "distance_from_trend": -0.066262, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.193268, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.063377, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.101183, "excess_performance": -0.108583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066262, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128119, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.510688, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110390250, "relative_activity": 1.235611, "balance": 0.510688, "dry_up": 1.275032, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049446, "annualized_volatility": 0.217797, "from_high_reference": -0.312864, "from_low_reference": 0.081871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.663092, "fair_value_reference": 38.193268, "structural_low": 30.780001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.020421, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.004, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.12603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.03071, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012166, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.262389, "worst_return": -0.101974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010566, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.010121, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.204574, "worst_return": -0.153166, 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"activity_lines": [ 32.274667, 32.83052, 34.152074, 35.004809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.5, "volume": 116554322, "typical_volume": 88582156.15, "trend": 35.916279, "fair_value": 38.313065, "relative_strength": -13.292987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.143301, "energy": 44.935114, "activity_lines": [ 32.778, 32.836182, 33.998074, 34.840545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.990002, "volume": 116324820, "typical_volume": 88607426.95, "trend": 35.815053, "fair_value": 38.256867, "relative_strength": -7.100237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.969497, "energy": 22.735035, "activity_lines": [ 33.648001, 33.147637, 34.001701, 34.780785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.299999, "volume": 110390250, "typical_volume": 89340614.3, "trend": 35.663092, "fair_value": 38.193268, "relative_strength": -15.063377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.092767, "energy": 22.903962, "activity_lines": [ 33.676667, 33.154728, 33.856813, 34.618523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }