{ "ticker": { "uuid": "34578e9e-a06c-43fd-8c8c-1749ee1c660d", "symbol": "LKY", "name": "Locksley Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.38, "architecture_energy": 66.023, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 29.53, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 55.81, "rotation_down": 57.92, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0592, 0.0612, 0.084029, 0.105389 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.066, "trend_reference": 0.133167, "distance_from_trend": -0.50438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.097218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.321113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.5316, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.574194, "excess_performance": -0.637899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.50438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325169, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.321113, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.780713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.715316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34489, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.574194, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.379394, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16766858, "relative_activity": 1.29082, "balance": 0.379394, "dry_up": 1.446857, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225524, "annualized_volatility": 0.812012, "from_high_reference": -0.904348, "from_low_reference": 0.281553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.133167, "fair_value_reference": 0.097218, "structural_low": 0.0515, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.079167, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.048165, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.470588, "worst_return": -0.478261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.096774, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.100862, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 3.294118, "worst_return": -0.528571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.266344, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.328961, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 6.777778, "worst_return": -0.574194, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 0.097199, "relative_strength": -75.397705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.665693, "energy": 85.046631, "activity_lines": [ 0.0572, 0.0656, 0.094657, 0.115695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.056, "volume": 10009519, "typical_volume": 13487214.1, "trend": 0.1383, "fair_value": 0.097179, "relative_strength": -75.33634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.047431, "energy": 81.83964, "activity_lines": [ 0.0564, 0.061909, 0.088548, 0.110054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.066, "volume": 16766858, "typical_volume": 12989303.5, "trend": 0.133167, "fair_value": 0.097218, "relative_strength": -71.5316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.380259, "energy": 66.023303, "activity_lines": [ 0.0592, 0.0612, 0.084029, 0.105389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }