{ "ticker": { "uuid": "345960c2-09ac-42f9-933b-88902b438fd5", "symbol": "1594", "name": "Ju-Kao Engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.42, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.58, "architecture_energy": 42.412, "architecture_maturity": 10.408, "architecture_confidence": 94.914, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.76, "rotation_up": 20.04, "upward_expansion": 9.06, "deceleration": 41.23, "rotation_down": 43.65, "downward_expansion": 77.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.038667, 8.098545, 8.755571, 8.878323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.1, "trend_reference": 8.892, "distance_from_trend": -0.089069, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.888205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08868, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.566341, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043684, "excess_performance": -0.485056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089069, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007668, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08868, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207882, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.325663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.6959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10076, "relative_activity": 0.014304, "balance": 0.6959, "dry_up": 0.056243, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153276, "annualized_volatility": 0.823936, "from_high_reference": -0.531792, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.892, "fair_value_reference": 8.888205, "structural_low": 7.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007477, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.00172, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.556604, "worst_return": -0.114943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016877, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.105062, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.198347, "worst_return": -0.113089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065414, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.131054, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.127336, "worst_return": -0.103943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049881, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003759, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 706580.6, "trend": 8.9, "fair_value": 8.919038, "relative_strength": -30.373682, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.290805, "energy": 22.038412, "activity_lines": [ 8.224, 8.409636, 9.113238, 9.061441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.0, "volume": 26192, "typical_volume": 706140.2, "trend": 8.915, "fair_value": 8.908974, "relative_strength": -31.088544, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.709795, "energy": 25.553225, "activity_lines": [ 8.165333, 8.282364, 8.996714, 9.003376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.8, "volume": 40300, "typical_volume": 704933.7, "trend": 8.923333, "fair_value": 8.897628, "relative_strength": -33.63271, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.057385, "energy": 32.658554, "activity_lines": [ 8.052, 8.147091, 8.861619, 8.931441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.1, "volume": 10076, "typical_volume": 704434.35, "trend": 8.892, "fair_value": 8.888205, "relative_strength": -32.566341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.580002, "energy": 42.411507, "activity_lines": [ 8.038667, 8.098545, 8.755571, 8.878323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }